“Now I've got a hole in my pocket, a hole
in my shirt, a whole lot of trouble, he said
But now the money is gone, life carries on and I miss it like a hole in the head”
(Passenger – Michael David Rosenberg)
When gas prices fell dramatically last fall, I
enthusiastically predicted it would be a big boost to the economy with more
than $70 billion, yeah $70 BILLION, in added consumer spending flowing into the
system. And I even thought the impact
would be greater than normal due to the psychological boost it would provide to
consumers. Why did I believe this?
Because in the past a drop in gas prices usually produced the same impact as a
tax cut and consumer spending increased.
Well welcome to the 2010’s where you can’t rely on some
types of historical data to forecast the future. I have been claiming since 2010 that certain
past reliable economic indicators are broken and are still unreliable. And even then I have made at least two
inaccurate predictions in the past year that were based on “rock-solid”
history. Those rocks are now crushed stone.
Retail sales have been moderate and inconsistent at best
since October and that “huge” economic boost equated to a negative GDP in Q1.
So what the heck happened here?
It was expected that weaker crude oil prices would hurt
the energy industry, however economists did not think crude would go so low and
stay depressed for this long. It turns
out that the energy markets were a significant growth engine for the entire
economy and fueling considerable ancillary spending. Once the air was let out
of that balloon, the economy began to stall.
However, the bigger question is: What happened to all
this money the consumer pocketed from lower gas prices? If we didn’t spend it,
where did the money go? Here is the
speculation:
We
Saved It
Some economists speculate that the savings rate has
increased since the Great Recession.
There were long lasting cultural changes regarding saving and spending
following the Great Depression, so the thinking is people’s attitude and
behavior have changed due to going through the Great Recession and they are
managing their money more responsibly.
I’m not really buying into this one. This is probably true for a small segment of
the population, but I still believe this is a consumption-crazed society and it
will take more than just a recession to change that.
We
Don’t Think It Will Last
Consumers aren’t spending the windfall because they don’t
expect gas prices to stay low. And to a
certain extent they are correct. The
average gas price is now $2.82/gal up from the low point of $1.98, but still
90¢ lower than a year ago. So maybe this
money will be spent on something in the future, but not now. Technically it is “savings”, but functionally
it is delayed spending. Regardless, it’s not being spent.
Nervous
Consumers
There have been surveys showing people are getting more
nervous about losing their jobs. This is
perplexing based on the fairly positive jobs data this year. Maybe it was the announcements of future job
cuts by some large corporations at the beginning of the year which spooked
people.
Regardless, the gas savings has not made consumers more
confident. The UM Consumer Confidence
Index was 94.1 in October and only 96.1 now. It did grow at the beginning of the year but has
moderated since. Likewise the Gallup
Economic Confidence Index was -13 in October and -9 now. If consumers are not confident about the
future, they don’t spend money in the present.
Wealthier
Consumers Are Not Purchasing Luxury Items
There have been articles detailing this trend. People were spending recklessly before the
recession and now could be reverting to more normal patterns. After everything that has happened and the
derision of the “rich” in the news/political arena, conspicuous consumption is
not as valued as it had been.
The
Costs of Healthcare Are Increasing
There have been numerous articles and analyses done on
the increased costs associated with healthcare. Forget about the cases where
the cases where someone’s premium goes up 80%, consider a more normal case
where someone’s premium went up $20 a month and their deductible increased by a
$1000 at the start of 2015. Throw in
some higher co-pay fees and lower reimbursements for services by your insurance
company.
The Affordable Care Act may be far from affordable for
most people. I believe almost everyone was
impacted by it. The insurance companies
and doctors are not going to make less money, so they figured out ways to
extract more money from the people who already had insurance. I know I am paying more. My family used to hit our deductible around
May, now we never hit it. I am writing small to moderate checks the entire year
for medical bills.
That may have been the plan all along. For people to
write “absorbable” checks every month so they don’t realize how much more they
are really spending. The problem is all
the “micro-checks” when added together can cause a macro impact on the
economy. Add this impact with the
employment issues (29 hour work week, 50 employee small business clause) and
the Affordable Care Act may turn out to be a huge drain on economic growth.
That means in January, just about the time people were
getting ready to spend their gas dividend (economists say there is about a two
month lag from when gas prices fall), their healthcare costs increased, wiping
out that savings. It means we tried
to pocket the savings, but there was a hole in this pocket.
Economists calculate the average household savings on
lower gas prices will be about $700. If
you spend an additional $700 on healthcare during the year, you break even. If
your healthcare costs rise more, you lose.
Increased healthcare costs may be reason for disappointing retail sales
in 2015 and may have contributed to the weak Q1 GDP.
It may have been a fortunate coincidence that consumers
got more money from gas savings just as they were required to pay more money
for healthcare. However, we may not be
nearly as fortunate if gas prices rise back to previous levels just as the 2016
healthcare increases hit.
“Now I've got a hole in my pocket, a hole
in my shirt, a whole lot of trouble, he said
But now the money is gone, life carries on and I miss it like a hole in the head
This post first appeared on the FTR website. FTR is the leader in analyzing and forecasting the commercial transportation industry. For more information on FTR reports and services, please click here.)
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