A sea change happens one drop at a time …
Problems
at the Mall
I make my annual Christmas shopping trip to the mall around
December 10 every year. For at least the last ten years, I have purchased
calendars at a kiosk in the mall. I usually buy at least four calendars: a
365-day desk calendar for me, another desk calendar for my youngest daughter,
and a desk calendar and wall calendar for my oldest daughter.
The calendars for my youngest daughter and I vary in theme
every year depending on what is available and what I bought last year. However,
I always buy my oldest daughter both a Pittsburgh Steeler desk calendar and
wall calendar every year. How I happened to spawn a rabid Steelers fan while
living in Northeast Ohio is another story. I know I am very much a pattern
shopper, but my routine is relevant to the rest of this story.
About five years ago I was surprised when the calendar kiosk
moved to a much less prominent location in the mall. I reasoned that the mall
had raised rental fees and the company had decided to change locations rather
than pay the higher cost. The new location must have cut into sales too much,
because the next year the calendar kiosk was back at its previous location,
although it was slightly smaller. Then each subsequent year, it was scaled back
some more. This made business sense as fewer people were going to the mall, due
to on-line shopping and competition from superstores. As sales decreased at the
kiosk, costs were lowered by reducing the rental space.
This reduction in calendar selection did cause some issues
for me. It became more difficult to find calendar themes I wanted. This year,
the kiosk was about half the size it was five years ago. They took the
board/card game kiosk that always stood next to it and combined it with the
calendars into one kiosk, about the size of the original calendar kiosk. I was
immediately concerned about finding desirable desk calendars for my daughter
and myself, but I fortunately found two good ones. However, the number of
sports team calendars had been greatly reduced, and there were no Pittsburgh
Steeler calendars.
The sales clerk said they had sold out of those because it
was a popular calendar this year. Of course, based on my many years of
experience buying calendars at this kiosk, I knew this was not true. They
didn’t have the calendars this year because they had significantly cut
inventory. I paid for my two calendars and drove home thinking about how I
could get the Steelers calendars before Christmas.
Ten minutes after returning home I logged on to
calendars.com. I quickly found my Steeler calendars and, surprisingly, they
were both $5 cheaper than what I usually pay at the kiosk, and shipping was
free. I also noticed the wide variety of desk calendars they offer; my guess is
at least 10 times more calendars than the kiosk. The calendars arrived in eight
days, and everyone had a Merry Christmas.
Now where do you think I’m going to buy all my calendars
next year? Multiply this change in my buying behavior by millions of purchases,
and it explains the already enormous growth in on-line sales and suggests it
will continue. Now this wasn’t my first on-line purchase, that happened in
1999. I remember it because my co-worker Kurt congratulated me on having the
courage to submit my credit card number on-line. Of course, there are still
issues. I ordered something this summer from a Facebook ad and the bogus
company failed to send the merchandise, and also hacked my credit card number. Overall,
for many items, on-line purchasing is superior to in-store shopping.
The
World Gets Smaller and the Supply Chain Shorter
My most interesting gift this Christmas was a pair of
sneakers I customer-ordered from China. The shoes were ordered from another
Facebook ad (I guess I’m a gambler). What makes the shoes special is that they feature
the name and logo of my alma mater, The University of Akron. Instead of
stocking inventory of assorted sizes of the hundred or so universities
(assuming) available, they only need to stock the shoe “shell” and then print
the graphics on fabric and glue it to the shell. So, through the magic of the
Internet, I can custom order Chinese-made goods. I would be very interested to
see the actual factory where my shoes were made.
I ordered the shoes just after Thanksgiving, and they
arrived one week later
The
Sea Change For Transportation
Huge selections and free shipping. Ordering customer-made
goods from Chinese factories. These are the drops that are fueling this sea
change. And just when you thought this movement was containable, 3-D printing
is only beginning. More ships are about to be capsized, with the changes to
transportation and logistics again inevitable.
