Don
|
Panel
|
Actual
|
Winner
|
|
GDP
|
3.0%
|
2.3%
|
2.2%
|
Panel
|
CPI (Inflation)
|
2.3%
|
1.8%
|
2.2%
|
Don
|
Unemployment
|
8.2%
|
8.6%
|
7.8%
|
Don
|
Housing Starts
|
720K
|
674K
|
780K
|
Don
|
Crude Oil Price
|
$101
|
$95
|
$89
|
Panel
|
I'm closer on CPI, Unemployment and Housing Starts, so I’m doing a little
victory dance celebrating my second straight 3 to 2 win! Take note of how close the panels’ GDP
forecast was. You won’t get accuracy
like that from those other economic blogs!
My GDP forecast was much too high for the second straight year. I expected the government to “pull out all
stops” to stimulate the economy in an election year because no incumbent
president could ever be elected with economic growth so weak and unemployment
so high. Uh, well it seems like the political indicators are malfunction as
much as the economic ones.
The 2013 forecast
differences between the panel and I are much closer than normal this year which
means I must be getting better or they are playing way to much golf! For the record, I do make my forecasts before
calculating the panel average:
Here are the 2013
Economic Bowl Picks:
The GDP Bowl:
Minnesota Moderates
vs. Rutgers Recession
Line: Moderates by 2.2% Range: 1.3% to 2.9% (The Line is the average
of the expert panel. The Range is the
lowest and highest individual forecasts of the panel)
The economy will start
off at a very low rate of growth and then improve modestly all year. We should be running at 3% by year’s
end. My Pick: Moderates by 2.3%
The CPI Bowl (Consumer Price Index Bowl)
Pittsburgh Pricers vs.
Duke Discounters
Line: Discounters by
2.1% Range: 1.8% to 2.3%
CPI was 2.2% last
year. There are few factors that should
push this much in either direction. This
is why the FED can keep interest rates in check for another year. I will move it up slightly just because I
have GDP going up the same. My Pick: Discounters by 2.3%
The Unemployment Bowl
Louisiana Laborers vs.
Fresno Food Stampers
Line: Stampers by
7.8% Range 7.7% to 7.9%
This statistic has
been highly questionable for a year. Just
how many people are leaving the workforce and why? The retiring baby boomers are a factor, but
how much? And then you have the
underemployed and part-time worker/full-time seeker factor. An economy growing at 2% should not generate
enough jobs to reduce the current rate and that is why the panel is forecasting
no change. I am only slightly more
optimistic. My Pick: Stampers by 7.6%
Housing Starts Bowl
Arizona Allotments vs.
Virginia Vacants
Line: Allotments by
980,000 Range: 810,000 to 1,080,000
The housing market is
coming back and gaining momentum on a more consistent basis. I (and the panel) am forecasting 25% growth
in 2013.
My Pick: Allotments by
975,000
Price of Crude Bowl
Keystone Pipeliners
vs. California Hippies
Line: Pipeliners by
$88 (year-end) Range: $80 to $94
The price of crude
(and gas prices) has dropped sharply in December and some experts say it could
fall to $80 a barrel. I think this is based
on a weak U.S. and world economy. By the
end of 2013 I expect the U.S. economy to be rolling forward and hopefully the
world economy is in better shape also.
My Pick: Pipeliners by $95.
 |
| Bet Big on the Pipeline! |
Stock Market
Prediction:
The Model T predicted
an S&P 500 Index high of 1435 in 2012 and the index peaked at 1474. Being 2.7% low is not that bad; however in
2011 the forecast was 2.2% high.
The Model T 2013
forecast is for a high of 1550, however for the first time since I have been
writing this blog the Model T is signaling a definite peak to be followed by a
correction. I will present the details
in the next post.
I hope you made some
good investments in 2012 and wish you a very prosperous 2013!
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