Almost every important economic indicator was either negative or less positive in April. In addition, Q1 GDP came in at a disappointing 1.8%. This resulted in numerous articles declaring the recovery over with disastrous consequences ahead. So what is going on? How much trouble are we in?
Due to the damaged financial system, the housing market collapse, the restructuring of the employment markets and all the problems created during the Great Recession, this recovery is expected to be slower, weaker, and uneven. When the economy stabilized, it started going through “normal” cycles, but at a lower growth rate. The economy now is still cycling, but is moving upward at a slow pace. A strong recovery is able to cast off obstacles the same way Arnold Schwarzenegger is able to cast off women …, sorry I mean cast off attackers in the movies. A weak economy gets diverted by any bumps in the road.
And 2011 has been full of obstacles. The first was (and still is) unusually bad weather. There was very cold weather in the South, ice storms and flooding in the Midwest and huge snowstorms in the East. This weather caused major business disruptions in a wide swath of the nation. This nasty weather has continued into the spring. Tornados and rainstorms are battering the country and hurricane season is just starting. A robust economy absorbs this hit. A strong recovery puts on a jacket and barrels through. But a weak recovery catches a cold.
The next obstacle is the unrest in the Middle East. One of the consequences of our mass mediated news coverage is that we tend to forget the recent past very quickly. Beginning in February, everyone was very worried as protests and revolts started in several nations. We were already fighting two wars, briefly involved in a third and hoping World War Three wasn’t beginning. (On a side note, it is interesting that the “fake” end of the world received extensive media coverage while a potential “real” end of the world, the initial uprising in Saudi Arabia, received relatively minor coverage). Once again, a strong recovery gets past this, but a weak economy gets the shakes.
Of course the Middle East situation caused crude oil prices to spike. Most of this was speculation. You know this because most crude production was briefly affected in Libya (the rebels plan to restart production in their fields soon). Once Moammar and the rebels figured out how to milk the cow and keep fighting each other at the same time, things stabilized. The speculators are keeping the price high because there is still considerable unrest in the region. You can’t really blame them for trying. If the Saudis get overthrown, crude would shoot to over $200/barrel and retail prices would go to $10 a gallon, or the end of the world as we know it.
Higher gas prices are a tough obstacle for any economy and a big problem for this one. High gas prices act just like a tax on disposable income and really hurt lower-income people.
So what is this economy like? It’s sensitive, it’s cautious, it’s mysterious. It can be strong, it can be weak, and without warning it can be anything in between. That’s correct, this economy is a woman! This observation should be viewed as purely descriptive and is not derogatory or sexist in any way.
(Cue Billy Joel)
She can kill with a smile
She can wound with her eyes
She can ruin your faith with her casual lies
And she only reveals what she wants you to see
She hides like a child,
But she's always a woman to me
She can lead you to love
She can take you or leave you
She can ask for the truth
But she'll never believe you
And she'll take what you give her, as long as it's free
Yeah, she steals like a thief
But she's always a woman to me
You see this economy has been hurt very deeply by all the turmoil of the last few years. She has been lied to. She has been deceived. Her trust has been broken. She has been betrayed. She feels like we have been insensitive to her needs, she feels violated.
She is not really moved by some short-term, artificial, stimulus. She wants a real, long-term commitment. This relationship can be restored, but it will take time. She wants to take it slow and cautiously. She wants it to be deep, meaningful and long-lasting.
And she'll promise you more
Than the Garden of Eden
Then she'll carelessly cut you
And laugh while you're bleedin'
But she'll bring out the best
And the worst you can be
Blame it all on yourself
Cause she's always a woman to me
She is frequently kind
And she's suddenly cruel
She can do as she pleases
She's nobody's fool
And she can't be convicted
She's earned her degree
And the most she will do
Is throw shadows at you
But she's always a woman to me
We want to tell her that we really didn’t mean anything by it. That we wish that it never happened. That we need to get beyond this and just get back to the way things were before. And we promise that it will never, ever, happen again. We’re sorry baby, we are so very, very, sorry.
So what do we need to get this recovery (or to heal this relationship) to get going again? First, we need for the Middle East to stabilize. We are leaning on Khadafy like Chicago thugs (wonder where that idea came from?) and I actually think that it’s going to work. Second, we need the weather to get back to normal. Third, as the Middle East calms down, so will the speculators demand for crude oil futures. And finally, some Barry White music couldn’t hurt.
She's Always A Woman - Billy Joel
Please check out my new humor blog Next post: June 2
Monday, May 30, 2011
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Fantasy Island Meets Reality
Back in the mid-1980’s my wife and I worked for different manufacturing companies and were covered by two full medical and dental plans. Why would we pay for two plans? That’s the point; we didn’t pay anything for either one. The costs were fully paid by the companies, our only contribution was a modest deductable.
Today, my wife and I work for two different companies and we are covered by two full medical plans and we pay a contribution for both. Why would we pay for two plans? Because Obamacare forced me off my wife’s plan when I started working again. (“First of all, if you’ve got health insurance, you like your doctors, you like your plan, you can keep your doctor, you can keep your plan. Nobody is talking about taking that away from you.” -- Barak Obama)
Yes, things have changed considerably since the 80’s. Medical costs started to rise rapidly and companies started requiring employees to contribute to the costs. Every year now your employer tells you how much medical insurance costs have increased and you find out how much more you will have to pay.
Similarly, many companies used to provide substantial pension benefits to employees. That benefit also peaked in the 80’s. Most companies started to reduce or eliminate pensions and 401-K accounts with a company contribution became the norm.
And all this is obvious to most working people, but it is a mystery to those living on Fantasy Island where medical and pension benefits remain as they were in 1980’s. While a global economy and global competition were bringing huge changes to the mainland, those on Fantasy Island remained totally separated from the outside world. It’s like every year a plane arrives on the Island with a huge shipment of medical and pension benefits for the people to enjoy. (“Look boss, da plane, da plane!)
It has now become a big issue because the benefits delivered to Fantasy Island are paid for by the people on the mainland. As previously mentioned, the people on the mainland have seen their benefits significantly reduced over the past 30 years. In addition the last three years have been financially very tough on them. Now the people on the mainland have plans to reduce the plane’s cargo.
To this the residents of Fantasy Island scream “Da Plan” Boss. Da Plan. The *$!*?#! Plan! “This reaction is very rational and is to be expected. If you lived on the island, you would respond in the same way. Things have really changed. The way the islanders see it, not only did someone move their cheese, but they are trying to shove it up their cheesehole. They argue that they deserve better benefits because living on Fantasy Island makes them special. They feel attacked, blamed, and victimized. In a way that is true. A great many people have been “attacked” and victimized by The Great Recession. Some are still hurting very much.
The people on the Island shout that it is not fair to cut their benefits. But the people paying for those benefits say it is unfair that benefits continue to grow for one class of people when many people on the mainland are dealing with reduced benefits or no benefit at all.
The people on Fantasy Island were able to obtain great benefits due to the “bosses”. These bosses don’t wear white suits like Mr. Roarke (but they do like fine, Corinthian, leather) but they are very important to the islanders. In the past, the bosses were very important to people on the mainland also. The bosses started out only on the mainland but since many people on the mainland were working for bosses, it made sense that people on Fantasy Island worked for them also. But the value and thus the importance of the bosses started to decline significantly in the 90’s. Global competition and improved work laws have now almost made the bosses obsolete on the mainland.
However the bosses on Fantasy Island were insulated from global competition and not only survived, but kept gaining power. They did this by trading political support for increased benefits for their people. They also extracted money back from the people to entrench their positions. These deals worked because they went on behind a cloak of secrecy and details were rarely communicated to the people on the mainland. But now at this critical juncture, many people are questioning the level of benefits and the details are being brought to public scrutiny. (See links below)
Now the people on Fantasy Island are being forced to literally deal with reality. It is not 1980 anymore. They want to continue living in the past. It is ironic that to protest the attempt to rein in benefits, that some islanders resorted to a “sit-in” a common tactic in the 1960’s. Sit-ins may have been effective then, but have been largely abandoned due to the new technology of the TASER gun. The TASER was not used in this instance due to the expected public outcry if police would have tasered dozens of protesters. However police would have only had to taser one person to disperse the crowd provided that person screamed really loud. Selecting the person in our politically-correct culture would have been tricky, so look out skinny white guy they’re coming after you. (Take that nasty TASER white boy, take that nasty TASER right).
Therefore the main opponent of the Fantasy Islanders is not any politician, nor any political party or organization. Their opponent is Reality. And Reality is tough fighter. If you are not ready, it will slap you silly. It will blindside you and drive you face first into the ground. You can’t fight Reality head on, you can only try to respond and adapt to it.
You never got to see what happened on the television show Fantasy Island the next week after the people returned to reality. That’s because it probably wasn’t very pretty. This won’t be either.
Reality Article #1 Reality Article #2
Play That Funky Music!
Today, my wife and I work for two different companies and we are covered by two full medical plans and we pay a contribution for both. Why would we pay for two plans? Because Obamacare forced me off my wife’s plan when I started working again. (“First of all, if you’ve got health insurance, you like your doctors, you like your plan, you can keep your doctor, you can keep your plan. Nobody is talking about taking that away from you.” -- Barak Obama)
Yes, things have changed considerably since the 80’s. Medical costs started to rise rapidly and companies started requiring employees to contribute to the costs. Every year now your employer tells you how much medical insurance costs have increased and you find out how much more you will have to pay.
Similarly, many companies used to provide substantial pension benefits to employees. That benefit also peaked in the 80’s. Most companies started to reduce or eliminate pensions and 401-K accounts with a company contribution became the norm.
And all this is obvious to most working people, but it is a mystery to those living on Fantasy Island where medical and pension benefits remain as they were in 1980’s. While a global economy and global competition were bringing huge changes to the mainland, those on Fantasy Island remained totally separated from the outside world. It’s like every year a plane arrives on the Island with a huge shipment of medical and pension benefits for the people to enjoy. (“Look boss, da plane, da plane!)
It has now become a big issue because the benefits delivered to Fantasy Island are paid for by the people on the mainland. As previously mentioned, the people on the mainland have seen their benefits significantly reduced over the past 30 years. In addition the last three years have been financially very tough on them. Now the people on the mainland have plans to reduce the plane’s cargo.
To this the residents of Fantasy Island scream “Da Plan” Boss. Da Plan. The *$!*?#! Plan! “This reaction is very rational and is to be expected. If you lived on the island, you would respond in the same way. Things have really changed. The way the islanders see it, not only did someone move their cheese, but they are trying to shove it up their cheesehole. They argue that they deserve better benefits because living on Fantasy Island makes them special. They feel attacked, blamed, and victimized. In a way that is true. A great many people have been “attacked” and victimized by The Great Recession. Some are still hurting very much.
The people on the Island shout that it is not fair to cut their benefits. But the people paying for those benefits say it is unfair that benefits continue to grow for one class of people when many people on the mainland are dealing with reduced benefits or no benefit at all.
The people on Fantasy Island were able to obtain great benefits due to the “bosses”. These bosses don’t wear white suits like Mr. Roarke (but they do like fine, Corinthian, leather) but they are very important to the islanders. In the past, the bosses were very important to people on the mainland also. The bosses started out only on the mainland but since many people on the mainland were working for bosses, it made sense that people on Fantasy Island worked for them also. But the value and thus the importance of the bosses started to decline significantly in the 90’s. Global competition and improved work laws have now almost made the bosses obsolete on the mainland.
However the bosses on Fantasy Island were insulated from global competition and not only survived, but kept gaining power. They did this by trading political support for increased benefits for their people. They also extracted money back from the people to entrench their positions. These deals worked because they went on behind a cloak of secrecy and details were rarely communicated to the people on the mainland. But now at this critical juncture, many people are questioning the level of benefits and the details are being brought to public scrutiny. (See links below)
Now the people on Fantasy Island are being forced to literally deal with reality. It is not 1980 anymore. They want to continue living in the past. It is ironic that to protest the attempt to rein in benefits, that some islanders resorted to a “sit-in” a common tactic in the 1960’s. Sit-ins may have been effective then, but have been largely abandoned due to the new technology of the TASER gun. The TASER was not used in this instance due to the expected public outcry if police would have tasered dozens of protesters. However police would have only had to taser one person to disperse the crowd provided that person screamed really loud. Selecting the person in our politically-correct culture would have been tricky, so look out skinny white guy they’re coming after you. (Take that nasty TASER white boy, take that nasty TASER right).
Therefore the main opponent of the Fantasy Islanders is not any politician, nor any political party or organization. Their opponent is Reality. And Reality is tough fighter. If you are not ready, it will slap you silly. It will blindside you and drive you face first into the ground. You can’t fight Reality head on, you can only try to respond and adapt to it.
You never got to see what happened on the television show Fantasy Island the next week after the people returned to reality. That’s because it probably wasn’t very pretty. This won’t be either.
Reality Article #1 Reality Article #2
Play That Funky Music!
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Downsized Dan’s Amazing Adventure
One man’s journey into and out of The Great Recession
Dan arrived at work on a beautiful, sunny, Friday in June 2009. He had flown back home on Thursday from a wonderful Florida vacation. He had decided to return to work on Friday so that he could copy several files that he would need to do some work at home the following week. The offices would be closed the next week due to the July 4 holiday and slow sales. Dan wondered how many employees would have cut their vacation short to do this and how many of the other employees would be doing any work the following week.
Dan had been at work about an hour when he was told by a human resources manager to report to the conference room for a meeting. He knew what was going to happen. The company had been hit very hard by the recession. Sales had been cut in half and there had already been four layoffs, the most recent occurring that Monday when he had been in Florida. Dan had been with the company for 16 years, but that was no defense against this recession. This was not about experience, or even past value, this was about cold, hard, cash.
The two HR managers explained in frigid, sterile, terms what was happening and why. Dan pretended to listen, but he really didn’t hear very much. He was afraid to hear those final words. “We must now remove your 'bolers'.” “Oh please don’t take my bolers”, Dan pleaded. “I have worked for 16 years to grow and develop my bolers. Look how large and shiny they are.” But the HR Reps were unmoved. They then proceeded to cut Dan’s bolers off. “By the way Dan, we are sending your bolers to headquarters in Chicago. I think they are going to be mounted on the executive conference room wall!” Dan was presented with a bag of severance and directed to the exit.
Do you ever feel like a plastic bag
drifting through the wind
wanting to start again?
Do you ever feel, feel so paper thin
like a house of cards,
one blow from caving in?
So our hero Dan was thrown out of the land of Employment and into the land of Unemployment. This was a very disheartening thing. The official recession was ending, but millions of people had been cast out of Employment and more were arriving in Unemployment every day. And once you were cast out of Employment it was virtually impossible to get back in quickly. The walls of the city were made of granite and very high. You could see people running full speed into the granite wall trying to get back in. Others just pounded their fist or their head against the wall hoping it would help.
The only way to get back into Employment was to attract the attention of a “hiring nymph”. You then had to convince her that you were would a “good fit” worthy of receiving new bolers. If you were successful, you would get to mate with her and she would escort you back into the land of Employment. But there were very few hiring nymphs to be found. Many had gone to sleep due to the recession. There was great competition to attract the attention of the few nymphs looking for mates. There were almost seven residents of Unemployment for every hiring nymph. The nymphs could be very selective in choosing mates and some nymphs would not even look at you if you had no bolers.
But Dan could not even try get back into the land of Employment for a while. He was suffering intense physical and emotional pain due to the loss of his bolers. He spent some days just staring at where his bolers had been and wishing they were still there. He often thought back to when he had his bolers and how painful it was to have them chopped off.
Dan felt incomplete without his bolers. He just didn’t feel right, he didn’t look right and he didn’t walk right. He initially avoided going out into public because he thought people were staring at his lack of bolers. He lost his self-confidence and sometimes doubted his ability to ever obtain new bolers again. The strange thing was that in reality Dan was the very same person with the same skills and abilities, but he didn’t have his bolers and that left a huge void in his life.
Do you ever feel already buried deep?
6 feet under screams but no one seems to hear a thing
Do you know that there's still a chance for you
'Cause there's a spark in you
After a while Dan healed enough to go to the wall and begin trying to attract the attention of the hiring nymphs. He would yell out, “Do you have any bolers for me today?” But the effect of the recession raged on. There were no nymphs. No matter how loud or how creative you pleaded, there were no nymphs. Day after day Dan and the other people in the land of Unemployment would cry out, but there would be nothing but silence. Dan became very despondent, but he could not quit. He did not want to become like the head bangers. So he pressed on despite the utter futility of the mission.
This went on for months. Dan’s bag of severance was gone. He was tired, he was fearful; he wondered when he would ever have bolers again.
Maybe your reason why all the doors are closed
So you could open one that leads you to the perfect road
Like a lightning bolt, your heart will blow
And when it's time, you'll know
Then one day he attracted the attention of a hiring nymph. She liked what she saw and didn’t seem to care that Dan had been walking around without bolers for almost nine months. They talked, they winked, and they flirted.
Finally she said, “I want to mate with you.”
“What bolers do I get?” Dan asked.
The nymph then showed him his potential new bolers.
“They are not very big”, said Dan wearingly. “Can’t I have some larger ones please?”
“I’m afraid not, said the nymph. I know that residents of Unemployment are desperate to obtain any bolers at all, so this is all you get. Are you ready to mate?”
Dan reluctantly accepted the offer. As he approached the nymph to begin mating, she said “Great, now turn around and bend over.”
Somehow this was not the way Dan had imagined it would be. It was a classic “low-boler” offer. It is only very enjoyable for the nymph. So Dan complied and received their package and thus was granted access back into the land of Employment.
Dan did feel good to have new bolers. They obviously didn’t fit as well as his previous bolers, but they were bolers. Dan reasoned that if he worked really, really, hard, he might be able to grow these bolers to the size of his old ones, but it would take many years. So he swallowed his pride and went on with his life.
Dan had been re-bolerized for only eight months when suddenly another hiring nymph appeared. “I have been looking for someone special to mate with”, she cooed. “You have everything I am looking for and I wish to mate with you so badly.”
Dan was caught completely by surprise. He had vigorously pursued hiring nymphs while in the land of Unemployment for a long time without success. Now a nymph was pursuing him. She was very hot for him and she liked the fact that he already had bolers and really liked their shape.
But Dan was conflicted. His current nymph had mated with him when no other nymph would. She had given him his bolers back. She had made him feel somewhat whole again. How could he even think about mating with another nymph so soon?
He expressed his concerns to the new nymph.
“That’s nice”, she said. “But I really do want to mate with you. I think you can satisfy all my needs. Oh and by the way, here are your new bolers if you agree to mate with me.”
Dan’s mouth dropped open. The bolers were quite impressive. They were large and shiny. Upon closer inspection the bolers turned out to be even larger than the bolers he had originally lost. Dan had a big decision to make.
“Mate with me now!” The nymph pleaded.
“Wait, just a moment”, said Dan.
Dan had an ethical dilemma. Dan knew what he had to do. He had to consult the Book of Business Rules. Dan had lived his entire career by the book. He had consulted the book frequently and over his tenure had made some difficult decisions based on its direction. He was sure it would give him guidance now.
He hunted feverishly until he found the book. In the table of contents he found a chapter on Business Loyalty that he was sure would have the answer to his dilemma. His hands were shaking when he found the chapter and started thumbing through the pages. But to Dan’s dismay, he found that all the pages in that particular chapter had been erased. He could see where the print used to be, but in effect the pages were now blank. He knew that edits were made to the book from time to time, but he had never seen anything like this. He frantically went through the entire chapter page by page, searching for anything that might help him. But there was nothing left. He was angry at whoever had erased the pages, and then he noticed a hand written notation at the bottom of the last page. It said: “Final edit, December 2007”.
Dan recognized the date as the month the Great Recession began. He thought back to a conference room in June 2009. He remembered a cold, sterile, conversation and then he remembered having his bolers cut off after 16 years of loyal service. He concluded that it’s all about bolers man. He now knew what he had to do.
He ran to the new hiring nymph, ripped off her bodice and vigorously mated with her. After two days of continuous mating, Dan and the nymph achieved mutual orgasmic satisfaction. Now this is how Dan dreamt it would always be.
When Dan informed the other nymph what had happened, her father became furious that Dan had mated with another nymph so soon after mating with his daughter. Dan told him, that it wasn’t personal, but it was all about the bolers man. This explanation did not satisfy the dad. He came after Dan with a large pair of shears and threatened to cut off his new bolers.
Dan ran. He ran faster than he had ever run in his life. He ran so fast that suddenly his feet were not touching the ground. In fact he was no longer running but shooting up towards the sky. He then noticed that sparks were flying off his body.
“Holy Shadrach”, said Dan. “I’m on fiyar, but I’m not being burned.” Then he looked down and saw a pretty, young, woman wearing a bright, short, dress and he heard her singing:
'Cause baby you're a firework
Come on, show 'em what you're worth
Make 'em go "Ah, ah, ah"
As you shoot across the sky-y-y
Baby, you're a firework
Come on, let your colors burst
Make 'em go "Ah, ah, ah"
You're gonna leave 'em all in awe, awe, awe
Boom, boom, boom
Even brighter than the moon, moon, moon
Boom, boom, boom
Even brighter than the moon, moon, moon
Dan arrived at work on a beautiful, sunny, Friday in June 2009. He had flown back home on Thursday from a wonderful Florida vacation. He had decided to return to work on Friday so that he could copy several files that he would need to do some work at home the following week. The offices would be closed the next week due to the July 4 holiday and slow sales. Dan wondered how many employees would have cut their vacation short to do this and how many of the other employees would be doing any work the following week.
Dan had been at work about an hour when he was told by a human resources manager to report to the conference room for a meeting. He knew what was going to happen. The company had been hit very hard by the recession. Sales had been cut in half and there had already been four layoffs, the most recent occurring that Monday when he had been in Florida. Dan had been with the company for 16 years, but that was no defense against this recession. This was not about experience, or even past value, this was about cold, hard, cash.
The two HR managers explained in frigid, sterile, terms what was happening and why. Dan pretended to listen, but he really didn’t hear very much. He was afraid to hear those final words. “We must now remove your 'bolers'.” “Oh please don’t take my bolers”, Dan pleaded. “I have worked for 16 years to grow and develop my bolers. Look how large and shiny they are.” But the HR Reps were unmoved. They then proceeded to cut Dan’s bolers off. “By the way Dan, we are sending your bolers to headquarters in Chicago. I think they are going to be mounted on the executive conference room wall!” Dan was presented with a bag of severance and directed to the exit.
Do you ever feel like a plastic bag
drifting through the wind
wanting to start again?
Do you ever feel, feel so paper thin
like a house of cards,
one blow from caving in?
So our hero Dan was thrown out of the land of Employment and into the land of Unemployment. This was a very disheartening thing. The official recession was ending, but millions of people had been cast out of Employment and more were arriving in Unemployment every day. And once you were cast out of Employment it was virtually impossible to get back in quickly. The walls of the city were made of granite and very high. You could see people running full speed into the granite wall trying to get back in. Others just pounded their fist or their head against the wall hoping it would help.
The only way to get back into Employment was to attract the attention of a “hiring nymph”. You then had to convince her that you were would a “good fit” worthy of receiving new bolers. If you were successful, you would get to mate with her and she would escort you back into the land of Employment. But there were very few hiring nymphs to be found. Many had gone to sleep due to the recession. There was great competition to attract the attention of the few nymphs looking for mates. There were almost seven residents of Unemployment for every hiring nymph. The nymphs could be very selective in choosing mates and some nymphs would not even look at you if you had no bolers.
But Dan could not even try get back into the land of Employment for a while. He was suffering intense physical and emotional pain due to the loss of his bolers. He spent some days just staring at where his bolers had been and wishing they were still there. He often thought back to when he had his bolers and how painful it was to have them chopped off.
Dan felt incomplete without his bolers. He just didn’t feel right, he didn’t look right and he didn’t walk right. He initially avoided going out into public because he thought people were staring at his lack of bolers. He lost his self-confidence and sometimes doubted his ability to ever obtain new bolers again. The strange thing was that in reality Dan was the very same person with the same skills and abilities, but he didn’t have his bolers and that left a huge void in his life.
Do you ever feel already buried deep?
6 feet under screams but no one seems to hear a thing
Do you know that there's still a chance for you
'Cause there's a spark in you
After a while Dan healed enough to go to the wall and begin trying to attract the attention of the hiring nymphs. He would yell out, “Do you have any bolers for me today?” But the effect of the recession raged on. There were no nymphs. No matter how loud or how creative you pleaded, there were no nymphs. Day after day Dan and the other people in the land of Unemployment would cry out, but there would be nothing but silence. Dan became very despondent, but he could not quit. He did not want to become like the head bangers. So he pressed on despite the utter futility of the mission.
This went on for months. Dan’s bag of severance was gone. He was tired, he was fearful; he wondered when he would ever have bolers again.
Maybe your reason why all the doors are closed
So you could open one that leads you to the perfect road
Like a lightning bolt, your heart will blow
And when it's time, you'll know
Then one day he attracted the attention of a hiring nymph. She liked what she saw and didn’t seem to care that Dan had been walking around without bolers for almost nine months. They talked, they winked, and they flirted.
Finally she said, “I want to mate with you.”
“What bolers do I get?” Dan asked.
The nymph then showed him his potential new bolers.
“They are not very big”, said Dan wearingly. “Can’t I have some larger ones please?”
“I’m afraid not, said the nymph. I know that residents of Unemployment are desperate to obtain any bolers at all, so this is all you get. Are you ready to mate?”
Dan reluctantly accepted the offer. As he approached the nymph to begin mating, she said “Great, now turn around and bend over.”
Somehow this was not the way Dan had imagined it would be. It was a classic “low-boler” offer. It is only very enjoyable for the nymph. So Dan complied and received their package and thus was granted access back into the land of Employment.
Dan did feel good to have new bolers. They obviously didn’t fit as well as his previous bolers, but they were bolers. Dan reasoned that if he worked really, really, hard, he might be able to grow these bolers to the size of his old ones, but it would take many years. So he swallowed his pride and went on with his life.
Dan had been re-bolerized for only eight months when suddenly another hiring nymph appeared. “I have been looking for someone special to mate with”, she cooed. “You have everything I am looking for and I wish to mate with you so badly.”
Dan was caught completely by surprise. He had vigorously pursued hiring nymphs while in the land of Unemployment for a long time without success. Now a nymph was pursuing him. She was very hot for him and she liked the fact that he already had bolers and really liked their shape.
But Dan was conflicted. His current nymph had mated with him when no other nymph would. She had given him his bolers back. She had made him feel somewhat whole again. How could he even think about mating with another nymph so soon?
He expressed his concerns to the new nymph.
“That’s nice”, she said. “But I really do want to mate with you. I think you can satisfy all my needs. Oh and by the way, here are your new bolers if you agree to mate with me.”
Dan’s mouth dropped open. The bolers were quite impressive. They were large and shiny. Upon closer inspection the bolers turned out to be even larger than the bolers he had originally lost. Dan had a big decision to make.
“Mate with me now!” The nymph pleaded.
“Wait, just a moment”, said Dan.
Dan had an ethical dilemma. Dan knew what he had to do. He had to consult the Book of Business Rules. Dan had lived his entire career by the book. He had consulted the book frequently and over his tenure had made some difficult decisions based on its direction. He was sure it would give him guidance now.
He hunted feverishly until he found the book. In the table of contents he found a chapter on Business Loyalty that he was sure would have the answer to his dilemma. His hands were shaking when he found the chapter and started thumbing through the pages. But to Dan’s dismay, he found that all the pages in that particular chapter had been erased. He could see where the print used to be, but in effect the pages were now blank. He knew that edits were made to the book from time to time, but he had never seen anything like this. He frantically went through the entire chapter page by page, searching for anything that might help him. But there was nothing left. He was angry at whoever had erased the pages, and then he noticed a hand written notation at the bottom of the last page. It said: “Final edit, December 2007”.
Dan recognized the date as the month the Great Recession began. He thought back to a conference room in June 2009. He remembered a cold, sterile, conversation and then he remembered having his bolers cut off after 16 years of loyal service. He concluded that it’s all about bolers man. He now knew what he had to do.
He ran to the new hiring nymph, ripped off her bodice and vigorously mated with her. After two days of continuous mating, Dan and the nymph achieved mutual orgasmic satisfaction. Now this is how Dan dreamt it would always be.
When Dan informed the other nymph what had happened, her father became furious that Dan had mated with another nymph so soon after mating with his daughter. Dan told him, that it wasn’t personal, but it was all about the bolers man. This explanation did not satisfy the dad. He came after Dan with a large pair of shears and threatened to cut off his new bolers.
Dan ran. He ran faster than he had ever run in his life. He ran so fast that suddenly his feet were not touching the ground. In fact he was no longer running but shooting up towards the sky. He then noticed that sparks were flying off his body.
“Holy Shadrach”, said Dan. “I’m on fiyar, but I’m not being burned.” Then he looked down and saw a pretty, young, woman wearing a bright, short, dress and he heard her singing:
'Cause baby you're a firework
Come on, show 'em what you're worth
Make 'em go "Ah, ah, ah"
As you shoot across the sky-y-y
Baby, you're a firework
Come on, let your colors burst
Make 'em go "Ah, ah, ah"
You're gonna leave 'em all in awe, awe, awe
Boom, boom, boom
Even brighter than the moon, moon, moon
Boom, boom, boom
Even brighter than the moon, moon, moon
Monday, April 25, 2011
Smart Model, Stupid Operator
I began developing the Model T in 2006 as an attempt to predict cyclical highs and lows in the stock market. The model is built on factors and indexes connected to the commercial transportation industry.
I started sharing the results of the model in early 2007 with financial experts who specialize in the transportation industry. These people are “heavyweights” who invest millions of dollars of other people’s money. At that time, they thought I was very amusing. After all I was just a marketing person working at a component supplier. To establish “street cred”, that would be Wall Street cred, I not only had to tell them the market was going down, but how far. To be a playa, you gotta talk like a playa, you gotta dress like a playa. (Okay so I draw the line at the wardrobe. To be a financial guy you have to wear “tie shoes”. You can tell the difference between a marketing guy and a financial guy, because the financial guy will be the one with the shoelaces.) So at that point, the Model T predictions became more about numbers than trends.
In 2009 I was downsized. In September 2009, I started this blog. The main purpose of the blog was to help me find a new job. It would give me a forum to display my analysis and writing abilities and keep my name active in the marketplace.
There was some risk however. The Model T was unproven and it was going to be tested publically, not privately. If it turned out to be worthless, then I would look like a fool. (“Charts on the ground, charts on the ground, lookin’ like a fool, with your charts on the ground”).
However, I believed in the Model T. My fantasy was that the Model T would correctly predict the bottom of the stock market and that I would instantly become an overnight celebrity. I would be interviewed on CNBC by a hot econo-babe. You know the type, short skirt, plunging neckline, high ratings. When the cameras stopped rolling, she would invite me to continue the conversation over dinner. Job offers would then come rolling in from all over the world. “I’m sorry, $1.4 million is a nice offer, but the stock options in the package are a little weak”.
Yes, unemployment does cause you to think irrationally. On a more practical level, I did include a local newspaper columnist on my mailing list just in case the model was spot on. Interestingly enough, the blog did not help me in landing my job. I did however turn down the opportunity (generated on a recommendation from one of my “tie-shoe” connections) to interview with a Wall Street investment firm. (Because New York’s Not My Home)
I have written before that the Model T was predicting an S & P bottom of 580 and the market bottomed at 666 (you could call it a demon drop). Yes close, but if you waited for the 580 and didn’t get back into the market until later, you gave up some money.
But studying the latest update to the model reminded of something I had long forgotten. It’s not about the numbers, it’s about the trends, and the Model T is effective at predicting the trends. In short: The model works, and problems were due to operator error. Stupid, stupid, idiot operator!
Responding to model trends results in not selling at the highest point and not buying at the lowest point, but there is the potential to achieve some significant gains. If the model works, you should be able to get out of the market before a significant drop and get back in before a big upswing. Let’s see what investing according to the Model T would have produced over the last two major cycles.
Test #1 (One Cycle)
Say you invested $10,000 in a fund perfectly indexed to the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2006. The Model T would have said to sell in October 2007. Your money would have been worth around $11,970. Using the trend analysis, the Model T would have indicated to get back into the market in April 2010 (it actually says March, but you wouldn’t have the data until April). Your investment today would be worth $13,500. This is a 35% return on your investment. Not great under normal conditions, but not many 401-K accounts are up 35% since 2006. If you found a safe investment to park your money in 2009 and 2010, your return would be over 40% for the time period.
Test #2 (Two Cycles)
Let’s run this through two cycles. Say you invested $10,000 in January 1998. The model says to sell in October 2000. Your money is worth around $14,370. The model tells you to invest back in September 2002. You then cash out $27,000 in October 2007. You buy back in April 2010 and have around $30,400 today. Again, you get even more if you invest in a money market fund during the trough.
What the Model T Says Today
The Model T continues to indicate steady stock growth in 2011, leading to a bodacious 2012. Please remember however that the Model T is only useful for long-term cycles. It does not predict mid-term corrections. We will be fortunate if there is not some type of drawback this year. If there is a correction, the Model T would suggest getting some more money in the market before the 2012 upswing.
Underwear Check
A recent article reported that men’s underwear sales are having a strong year. It said that an improving economy and pent up demand were the reasons. It also stated that men were being more modest in their purchases, buying more basic brands instead of the higher priced products. This was correctly predicted in my March 18, 2010 post: “The Economics of Underwear”.
I started sharing the results of the model in early 2007 with financial experts who specialize in the transportation industry. These people are “heavyweights” who invest millions of dollars of other people’s money. At that time, they thought I was very amusing. After all I was just a marketing person working at a component supplier. To establish “street cred”, that would be Wall Street cred, I not only had to tell them the market was going down, but how far. To be a playa, you gotta talk like a playa, you gotta dress like a playa. (Okay so I draw the line at the wardrobe. To be a financial guy you have to wear “tie shoes”. You can tell the difference between a marketing guy and a financial guy, because the financial guy will be the one with the shoelaces.) So at that point, the Model T predictions became more about numbers than trends.
In 2009 I was downsized. In September 2009, I started this blog. The main purpose of the blog was to help me find a new job. It would give me a forum to display my analysis and writing abilities and keep my name active in the marketplace.
There was some risk however. The Model T was unproven and it was going to be tested publically, not privately. If it turned out to be worthless, then I would look like a fool. (“Charts on the ground, charts on the ground, lookin’ like a fool, with your charts on the ground”).
However, I believed in the Model T. My fantasy was that the Model T would correctly predict the bottom of the stock market and that I would instantly become an overnight celebrity. I would be interviewed on CNBC by a hot econo-babe. You know the type, short skirt, plunging neckline, high ratings. When the cameras stopped rolling, she would invite me to continue the conversation over dinner. Job offers would then come rolling in from all over the world. “I’m sorry, $1.4 million is a nice offer, but the stock options in the package are a little weak”.
Yes, unemployment does cause you to think irrationally. On a more practical level, I did include a local newspaper columnist on my mailing list just in case the model was spot on. Interestingly enough, the blog did not help me in landing my job. I did however turn down the opportunity (generated on a recommendation from one of my “tie-shoe” connections) to interview with a Wall Street investment firm. (Because New York’s Not My Home)
I have written before that the Model T was predicting an S & P bottom of 580 and the market bottomed at 666 (you could call it a demon drop). Yes close, but if you waited for the 580 and didn’t get back into the market until later, you gave up some money.
But studying the latest update to the model reminded of something I had long forgotten. It’s not about the numbers, it’s about the trends, and the Model T is effective at predicting the trends. In short: The model works, and problems were due to operator error. Stupid, stupid, idiot operator!
Responding to model trends results in not selling at the highest point and not buying at the lowest point, but there is the potential to achieve some significant gains. If the model works, you should be able to get out of the market before a significant drop and get back in before a big upswing. Let’s see what investing according to the Model T would have produced over the last two major cycles.
Test #1 (One Cycle)
Say you invested $10,000 in a fund perfectly indexed to the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2006. The Model T would have said to sell in October 2007. Your money would have been worth around $11,970. Using the trend analysis, the Model T would have indicated to get back into the market in April 2010 (it actually says March, but you wouldn’t have the data until April). Your investment today would be worth $13,500. This is a 35% return on your investment. Not great under normal conditions, but not many 401-K accounts are up 35% since 2006. If you found a safe investment to park your money in 2009 and 2010, your return would be over 40% for the time period.
Test #2 (Two Cycles)
Let’s run this through two cycles. Say you invested $10,000 in January 1998. The model says to sell in October 2000. Your money is worth around $14,370. The model tells you to invest back in September 2002. You then cash out $27,000 in October 2007. You buy back in April 2010 and have around $30,400 today. Again, you get even more if you invest in a money market fund during the trough.
What the Model T Says Today
The Model T continues to indicate steady stock growth in 2011, leading to a bodacious 2012. Please remember however that the Model T is only useful for long-term cycles. It does not predict mid-term corrections. We will be fortunate if there is not some type of drawback this year. If there is a correction, the Model T would suggest getting some more money in the market before the 2012 upswing.
Underwear Check
A recent article reported that men’s underwear sales are having a strong year. It said that an improving economy and pent up demand were the reasons. It also stated that men were being more modest in their purchases, buying more basic brands instead of the higher priced products. This was correctly predicted in my March 18, 2010 post: “The Economics of Underwear”.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Don’t Touch Me There!
The mayor of Omaha, Nebraska recently proposed a 10-cent federal tax per roll of toilet paper to pay for expensive city sewer projects. It may seem like an insignificant amount, but when you do the math it is not a small tax. At 10-cents a roll, the tax rate would be 10-40% depending on the brand. I really, really, wish I was making this up, but I’m not.
I wrote about the economics of toilet paper last June (Potty Economics) and thought this would be my last pass on the subject, but I was wrong. What I will assure you is that I will not reuse any of the 26 tasteless puns that appeared in that post. Because some things, like today’s subject, should never be reused.
There is some logic to this idea. It would be a type of “usage tax”. People using toilet paper use the sewer system. People who use more toilet paper theoretically stress the system more. Therefore the more paper you use, the more tax you pay. There are still fairness issues here. Body sizes, hygiene practices and frequency issues vary greatly from person to person. In addition a federal tax would result in customers in small cities and rural areas help pay for big city sewer projects, which appears to be the real motivation for the proposal. Why should someone on a Wyoming ranch be taxed on their toilet paper to pay for Chicago’s sewer repair? (Maybe a cowboy poet could write a prose about it!)
But way beyond that, there is just something very uncomfortable and disgusting about the government touching a most sensitive area. It’s bad enough when the government’s hand is in your pocket, but you really don’t want it sticking it up there. And you know that once the government turns on a revenue stream, it finds it almost impossible to turn it off. Once they find that a toilet paper tax is “found money”, they would enthusiastically go in there with both hands up to the wrist. Talk about your government intrusion!
Because Americans hate taxes (this is one of the things that make us Americans) some people would try to avoid paying the toilet paper tax. I previously wrote that toilet paper is a product with few substitutes. However once you introduce a financial incentive (the tax avoidance) and a non-financial incentive (screw the government), then the development of substitute products becomes more viable.
These products would undoubtedly be advertised on late-night television programs:
“Take a nasty poo? Take care of it with the Personal Sham-Wow. Just Sham-Wow it and forgetaboutit!”
Or --- “Try the new Super Spritzer from Ronco. Just attach it to your sink and let the Super Spritzer give you that spring-fresh feeling.”
A toilet paper tax would also create a black-market for the product – or more appropriately a “brown-market”. Some guy named Cheech would be selling tax-free toilet paper smuggled in from Mexico out of the back of his ’92 van.
“Hey dude, I got some really good two-ply, man. Really soft, good for your buns, man. No sh** man and no sh** leftover either. Got a shipment of quilted coming in on Tuesday if you can wait, man.”
Another reaction to the toilet paper tax is that people might choose to use less. For credibility the mayor pointed out that the toilet paper tax was first proposed (and failed) in Oregon in 2009. I’m guessing that the purpose of that tax was to reduce usage since that was the year of the Greenpeace campaign that claimed the use of plush toilet paper was destroying the environment. If you truly believe the most pressing world problem is toilet paper overuse, then there is no hope for you. You may as well go live on a hippie commune and smoke dope until your brain fizzles out, which shouldn’t take very long.
All I know is that if I reduce my toilet paper usage, it is going to be very damaging to the environment between my cheeks. It is not going to be good for the environment of people sitting by me in long business meetings either.
The toilet paper tax is one of the worst ideas in a long time. It is indicative of a government with an unquenchable thirst for tax money. So thirsty that it ignores basic American history. Because you see, in a meeting 244 years ago somebody said, “I have a most advantageous idea, let us tax their tea.”
It seemed like such a good idea at the time.
(original article on toliet paper tax)
I wrote about the economics of toilet paper last June (Potty Economics) and thought this would be my last pass on the subject, but I was wrong. What I will assure you is that I will not reuse any of the 26 tasteless puns that appeared in that post. Because some things, like today’s subject, should never be reused.
There is some logic to this idea. It would be a type of “usage tax”. People using toilet paper use the sewer system. People who use more toilet paper theoretically stress the system more. Therefore the more paper you use, the more tax you pay. There are still fairness issues here. Body sizes, hygiene practices and frequency issues vary greatly from person to person. In addition a federal tax would result in customers in small cities and rural areas help pay for big city sewer projects, which appears to be the real motivation for the proposal. Why should someone on a Wyoming ranch be taxed on their toilet paper to pay for Chicago’s sewer repair? (Maybe a cowboy poet could write a prose about it!)
But way beyond that, there is just something very uncomfortable and disgusting about the government touching a most sensitive area. It’s bad enough when the government’s hand is in your pocket, but you really don’t want it sticking it up there. And you know that once the government turns on a revenue stream, it finds it almost impossible to turn it off. Once they find that a toilet paper tax is “found money”, they would enthusiastically go in there with both hands up to the wrist. Talk about your government intrusion!
Because Americans hate taxes (this is one of the things that make us Americans) some people would try to avoid paying the toilet paper tax. I previously wrote that toilet paper is a product with few substitutes. However once you introduce a financial incentive (the tax avoidance) and a non-financial incentive (screw the government), then the development of substitute products becomes more viable.
These products would undoubtedly be advertised on late-night television programs:
“Take a nasty poo? Take care of it with the Personal Sham-Wow. Just Sham-Wow it and forgetaboutit!”
Or --- “Try the new Super Spritzer from Ronco. Just attach it to your sink and let the Super Spritzer give you that spring-fresh feeling.”
A toilet paper tax would also create a black-market for the product – or more appropriately a “brown-market”. Some guy named Cheech would be selling tax-free toilet paper smuggled in from Mexico out of the back of his ’92 van.
“Hey dude, I got some really good two-ply, man. Really soft, good for your buns, man. No sh** man and no sh** leftover either. Got a shipment of quilted coming in on Tuesday if you can wait, man.”
Another reaction to the toilet paper tax is that people might choose to use less. For credibility the mayor pointed out that the toilet paper tax was first proposed (and failed) in Oregon in 2009. I’m guessing that the purpose of that tax was to reduce usage since that was the year of the Greenpeace campaign that claimed the use of plush toilet paper was destroying the environment. If you truly believe the most pressing world problem is toilet paper overuse, then there is no hope for you. You may as well go live on a hippie commune and smoke dope until your brain fizzles out, which shouldn’t take very long.
All I know is that if I reduce my toilet paper usage, it is going to be very damaging to the environment between my cheeks. It is not going to be good for the environment of people sitting by me in long business meetings either.
The toilet paper tax is one of the worst ideas in a long time. It is indicative of a government with an unquenchable thirst for tax money. So thirsty that it ignores basic American history. Because you see, in a meeting 244 years ago somebody said, “I have a most advantageous idea, let us tax their tea.”
It seemed like such a good idea at the time.
(original article on toliet paper tax)
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
This Elephant Wants Cheap Oil!
To determine where the economy is going it is important not to ignore the elephant in the room. (Note: “Ignoring the elephant in the room” is a common business expression that should never be used if there is a rotund woman in your meeting). In our case, the elephant in the room is caused by uncertainty in Japan and Libya. Here is my take on both:
Japan: The Japan nuclear crisis was caused by the tsunami. Sure the 8.9 earthquake caused some damage to three reactors that were built to “only” withstand an 8.0 quake. But the problems would have been contained by the safety systems, if those systems would not have been destroyed by the tsunami. So until there are tsunamis on the Great Lakes, our U.S. nuclear plants are in great shape. We need abundant nuclear power to compete globally in this century.
Libya: Most Americans couldn’t find Libya on a map. Most Americans can’t spell Gha, Kad, okay I can’t either, but you get the idea. The only humanitarian mission we are interested in is the one that provides cheap gas for the humans in the U.S. I’m not saying this is right, I’m not saying this is moral, but you know that it is true. So why pretend it is about anything but the oil? Therefore why not just enter Libya and just take over the oil fields until the conflict ends? Don’t get involved with the war at all, just babysit their oil while they duke it out. We can turn the oil fields back to the winning side when the civil war is over. This is cheaper and less dangerous that what we are doing now (and much easier to explain!).
But don’t worry about the other problems in the Middle East because we have strong, decisive, leadership in the White House. Okay, in less than two years we will have the opportunity to elect strong, decisive… Okay, so maybe Donald Trump is starting to look better every day (except for the lousy hair). You get the idea that if Trump called Libya and shouted into the phone, “YOU’RE FIRED”, that somebody would be catching the next camel out of town.
Now let’s take a look at the major economic indicators:
GDP: Economists are scaling back forecasts due to high gas prices. My expert panel is at 3.2% for Q1 and 3.6% for Q2. January and February were hurt by bad weather conditions in the U.S. March was hurt by bad weather in Japan and the political tsunami in the Middle East. The economy is trying to gain momentum, but grease (and sometimes Greece) keeps getting thrown on the track. It’s going to be tough to hit 3.6% unless the elephant goes away soon.
Housing: The bad numbers keep pouring in. Housing starts and housing prices are in terrible shape. However if the housing market is hitting bottom, you would expect “bottom-feeder” numbers. Those numbers are worse than I expected, even though I still expect a recovery to start in the second half of the year. But some experts are very concerned with the “shadow inventory” – foreclosed homes not on the market yet and houses to be foreclosed in the near future. If the shadow inventory is significant, things could get much worse before they get better.
The housing recovery would have already begun if the government would not have artificially propped up the market last year. The government is like your mother-in-law, it means well but it should have stayed out of the way (and kept its trap shut).
Unemployment: Economists keep trying to use the traditional models to predict job growth. This was not a typical recession and this is far from a typical recovery. Job growth will be stronger than predicted because some companies panicked and cut too many employees during the recession. Now they are hiring more employees back than they would in a normal recovery. However, due to some structural changes in the employment market I believe we will hit a “wall” and it will be difficult to get below 7% unemployment. It is still taking people too long to find new jobs, but it is a much better job market than the pit of mid-2009.
Freight: Freight is still strong. It is fluctuating because businesses are having problems matching inventory with sales as the recovery progresses, but the overall trend is positive.
Retail Sales: People are starting to buy things again, especially wealthy people. Luxury good sales are spiking due to pent-up demand. Let’s hope that this is a preview of things to come in the other retail product segments.
Manufacturing: Industrial production and employment are stronger than anyone expected at this point. Exports have slowed down out a bit however.
The Model T: Indicates the recovery will continue throughout 2011 leading to a very strong 2012. Let’s just hope that the elephant doesn’t take a big dump in the middle of the parade route.
Japan: The Japan nuclear crisis was caused by the tsunami. Sure the 8.9 earthquake caused some damage to three reactors that were built to “only” withstand an 8.0 quake. But the problems would have been contained by the safety systems, if those systems would not have been destroyed by the tsunami. So until there are tsunamis on the Great Lakes, our U.S. nuclear plants are in great shape. We need abundant nuclear power to compete globally in this century.
Libya: Most Americans couldn’t find Libya on a map. Most Americans can’t spell Gha, Kad, okay I can’t either, but you get the idea. The only humanitarian mission we are interested in is the one that provides cheap gas for the humans in the U.S. I’m not saying this is right, I’m not saying this is moral, but you know that it is true. So why pretend it is about anything but the oil? Therefore why not just enter Libya and just take over the oil fields until the conflict ends? Don’t get involved with the war at all, just babysit their oil while they duke it out. We can turn the oil fields back to the winning side when the civil war is over. This is cheaper and less dangerous that what we are doing now (and much easier to explain!).
But don’t worry about the other problems in the Middle East because we have strong, decisive, leadership in the White House. Okay, in less than two years we will have the opportunity to elect strong, decisive… Okay, so maybe Donald Trump is starting to look better every day (except for the lousy hair). You get the idea that if Trump called Libya and shouted into the phone, “YOU’RE FIRED”, that somebody would be catching the next camel out of town.
Now let’s take a look at the major economic indicators:
GDP: Economists are scaling back forecasts due to high gas prices. My expert panel is at 3.2% for Q1 and 3.6% for Q2. January and February were hurt by bad weather conditions in the U.S. March was hurt by bad weather in Japan and the political tsunami in the Middle East. The economy is trying to gain momentum, but grease (and sometimes Greece) keeps getting thrown on the track. It’s going to be tough to hit 3.6% unless the elephant goes away soon.
Housing: The bad numbers keep pouring in. Housing starts and housing prices are in terrible shape. However if the housing market is hitting bottom, you would expect “bottom-feeder” numbers. Those numbers are worse than I expected, even though I still expect a recovery to start in the second half of the year. But some experts are very concerned with the “shadow inventory” – foreclosed homes not on the market yet and houses to be foreclosed in the near future. If the shadow inventory is significant, things could get much worse before they get better.
The housing recovery would have already begun if the government would not have artificially propped up the market last year. The government is like your mother-in-law, it means well but it should have stayed out of the way (and kept its trap shut).
Unemployment: Economists keep trying to use the traditional models to predict job growth. This was not a typical recession and this is far from a typical recovery. Job growth will be stronger than predicted because some companies panicked and cut too many employees during the recession. Now they are hiring more employees back than they would in a normal recovery. However, due to some structural changes in the employment market I believe we will hit a “wall” and it will be difficult to get below 7% unemployment. It is still taking people too long to find new jobs, but it is a much better job market than the pit of mid-2009.
Freight: Freight is still strong. It is fluctuating because businesses are having problems matching inventory with sales as the recovery progresses, but the overall trend is positive.
Retail Sales: People are starting to buy things again, especially wealthy people. Luxury good sales are spiking due to pent-up demand. Let’s hope that this is a preview of things to come in the other retail product segments.
Manufacturing: Industrial production and employment are stronger than anyone expected at this point. Exports have slowed down out a bit however.
The Model T: Indicates the recovery will continue throughout 2011 leading to a very strong 2012. Let’s just hope that the elephant doesn’t take a big dump in the middle of the parade route.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
My Poets Have Never Been Cowboys
Recently Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) defended maintaining the funding of the National Endowment for the Arts. His best argument for continuing the funding was that if the funds were cut, the Cowboy Poetry Festival (held in Nevada, what a surprise) might have to be cancelled.
Unfortunately, I am not making this up. We (taxpayers) are subsidizing cowboy poets and powerful people in government think it would be tragic if we stopped providing this service. Isn’t it interesting that you would get the same reaction from a junkie if you threatened to take away his smack.
I think that if I needed an example of why cutting the funding was needed, I might play the “cowboy poetry” card. If we do go broke, people 100 years from now will say “Look at those idiots, the deficits were so high, but they still spent money on that cowboy poetry.
What is cowboy poetry anyway? When I told my friend Sue that I was going to write on this subject, she said that it wouldn’t be fair to comment on it without actually reading some of it. She is obviously an intelligent woman, so I did read some cowboy poetry using a new technology called the “Internet”.
It is bad. It is “last thing I would read in the doctor’s office” bad. It is “Oprah reading list runner-up” bad. It is “against the Geneva Convention to read this to prisoners“ bad. It is “third-grade poetry contest” bad. I had to clean my computer monitor after the download to get the stench out.
But if it so bad, why do cowboys continue to write it and why is there a tax-payer funded festival every year to promote it? My theory is that cowboys do this stupid thing for the same reason men have done stupid things throughout the ages: Chicks dig it.
And there is another dynamic taking place here. Woman love cowboys. They find this rugged masculinity very sexy and appealing. Why do you think so many men’s colognes have “western” names? Even business executives want to smell like cowboys, because woman love cowboys. If you can’t be a cowboy, the next best thing is to splash on some Stetson and smell like one.
Even gay men are attracted to cowboys. My evidence is the cowboy character in The Village People and the movie Brokeback Mountain. So if you like men, you like cowboys.
And when cowboys write poetry, they reveal their sensitive side. And guys know that women crave that mix of strength and sensitivity. Of course most guys who realize this, still have problems making it work.
Woman: “What the hell are you doing?”
Man: “I’m trying to be strong”
Woman: “Well stop it and try to be more sensitive, you jerk!”
The next day …
Woman: “What the hell are you doing?”
Man: “I’m trying to be sensitive”
Woman: “Well quit being a wimp and show some strength!”
So I’m not surprised that cowboys write poetry. I’m also not surprised that a cowboy poetry festival is popular as hundreds of cowgirl wannabees descend upon northern Nevada (including maybe some Vegas showgirls). For a weekend the cowboys have more groupies than rock stars. Sure they are saddle sore for the next week, but they don’t mind. It wouldn’t even surprise me if a cowboy poet first coined the term for that reverse riding style.
So yes, I guess cowboy poetry has a purpose. And yes, I suppose people have a great time at the festival. But I still don’t understand why one dime of taxpayer money should go to fund this. If the cowboys are having as much fun as I think they are, they will most assuredly pay all the expenses.
So in honor of cowboy poetry, I will end this blog with a cowboy poem of my own:
Tham Chaps
Tham chaps are rubbin’ me the wrong way
Tham chaps are ruinin’ my day
Tham chaps in D.C.
Are really irritating me
Tham chaps are chaffing my thighs
And tellin’ us lies
They take corn for my cattle
To make gas for Seattle
Tham chaps are pinching my buns
And they’re after my guns
They don’t want to hear
Then they go taxin’ my beer
Tham chaps are inflaming my loins
As they grab all tham coins
They’re taxin’ my smokes
And screwing us folks
Tham chaps are grinding my nubs
And sayin’ thing that are dumb
Thar dense as a bird
And make more manure than my herd
Tham chaps are rubbin’ me the wrong way
Tham chaps are ruinin’ my day
Tham chaps in D.C.
Are really irritating me
Yee Haw!
Unfortunately, I am not making this up. We (taxpayers) are subsidizing cowboy poets and powerful people in government think it would be tragic if we stopped providing this service. Isn’t it interesting that you would get the same reaction from a junkie if you threatened to take away his smack.
I think that if I needed an example of why cutting the funding was needed, I might play the “cowboy poetry” card. If we do go broke, people 100 years from now will say “Look at those idiots, the deficits were so high, but they still spent money on that cowboy poetry.
What is cowboy poetry anyway? When I told my friend Sue that I was going to write on this subject, she said that it wouldn’t be fair to comment on it without actually reading some of it. She is obviously an intelligent woman, so I did read some cowboy poetry using a new technology called the “Internet”.
It is bad. It is “last thing I would read in the doctor’s office” bad. It is “Oprah reading list runner-up” bad. It is “against the Geneva Convention to read this to prisoners“ bad. It is “third-grade poetry contest” bad. I had to clean my computer monitor after the download to get the stench out.
But if it so bad, why do cowboys continue to write it and why is there a tax-payer funded festival every year to promote it? My theory is that cowboys do this stupid thing for the same reason men have done stupid things throughout the ages: Chicks dig it.
And there is another dynamic taking place here. Woman love cowboys. They find this rugged masculinity very sexy and appealing. Why do you think so many men’s colognes have “western” names? Even business executives want to smell like cowboys, because woman love cowboys. If you can’t be a cowboy, the next best thing is to splash on some Stetson and smell like one.
Even gay men are attracted to cowboys. My evidence is the cowboy character in The Village People and the movie Brokeback Mountain. So if you like men, you like cowboys.
And when cowboys write poetry, they reveal their sensitive side. And guys know that women crave that mix of strength and sensitivity. Of course most guys who realize this, still have problems making it work.
Woman: “What the hell are you doing?”
Man: “I’m trying to be strong”
Woman: “Well stop it and try to be more sensitive, you jerk!”
The next day …
Woman: “What the hell are you doing?”
Man: “I’m trying to be sensitive”
Woman: “Well quit being a wimp and show some strength!”
So I’m not surprised that cowboys write poetry. I’m also not surprised that a cowboy poetry festival is popular as hundreds of cowgirl wannabees descend upon northern Nevada (including maybe some Vegas showgirls). For a weekend the cowboys have more groupies than rock stars. Sure they are saddle sore for the next week, but they don’t mind. It wouldn’t even surprise me if a cowboy poet first coined the term for that reverse riding style.
So yes, I guess cowboy poetry has a purpose. And yes, I suppose people have a great time at the festival. But I still don’t understand why one dime of taxpayer money should go to fund this. If the cowboys are having as much fun as I think they are, they will most assuredly pay all the expenses.
So in honor of cowboy poetry, I will end this blog with a cowboy poem of my own:
Tham Chaps
Tham chaps are rubbin’ me the wrong way
Tham chaps are ruinin’ my day
Tham chaps in D.C.
Are really irritating me
Tham chaps are chaffing my thighs
And tellin’ us lies
They take corn for my cattle
To make gas for Seattle
Tham chaps are pinching my buns
And they’re after my guns
They don’t want to hear
Then they go taxin’ my beer
Tham chaps are inflaming my loins
As they grab all tham coins
They’re taxin’ my smokes
And screwing us folks
Tham chaps are grinding my nubs
And sayin’ thing that are dumb
Thar dense as a bird
And make more manure than my herd
Tham chaps are rubbin’ me the wrong way
Tham chaps are ruinin’ my day
Tham chaps in D.C.
Are really irritating me
Yee Haw!
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