I began developing the Model T in 2006 as an attempt to predict cyclical highs and lows in the stock market. The model is built on factors and indexes connected to the commercial transportation industry.
I started sharing the results of the model in early 2007 with financial experts who specialize in the transportation industry. These people are “heavyweights” who invest millions of dollars of other people’s money. At that time, they thought I was very amusing. After all I was just a marketing person working at a component supplier. To establish “street cred”, that would be Wall Street cred, I not only had to tell them the market was going down, but how far. To be a playa, you gotta talk like a playa, you gotta dress like a playa. (Okay so I draw the line at the wardrobe. To be a financial guy you have to wear “tie shoes”. You can tell the difference between a marketing guy and a financial guy, because the financial guy will be the one with the shoelaces.) So at that point, the Model T predictions became more about numbers than trends.
In 2009 I was downsized. In September 2009, I started this blog. The main purpose of the blog was to help me find a new job. It would give me a forum to display my analysis and writing abilities and keep my name active in the marketplace.
There was some risk however. The Model T was unproven and it was going to be tested publically, not privately. If it turned out to be worthless, then I would look like a fool. (“Charts on the ground, charts on the ground, lookin’ like a fool, with your charts on the ground”).
However, I believed in the Model T. My fantasy was that the Model T would correctly predict the bottom of the stock market and that I would instantly become an overnight celebrity. I would be interviewed on CNBC by a hot econo-babe. You know the type, short skirt, plunging neckline, high ratings. When the cameras stopped rolling, she would invite me to continue the conversation over dinner. Job offers would then come rolling in from all over the world. “I’m sorry, $1.4 million is a nice offer, but the stock options in the package are a little weak”.
Yes, unemployment does cause you to think irrationally. On a more practical level, I did include a local newspaper columnist on my mailing list just in case the model was spot on. Interestingly enough, the blog did not help me in landing my job. I did however turn down the opportunity (generated on a recommendation from one of my “tie-shoe” connections) to interview with a Wall Street investment firm. (Because New York’s Not My Home)
I have written before that the Model T was predicting an S & P bottom of 580 and the market bottomed at 666 (you could call it a demon drop). Yes close, but if you waited for the 580 and didn’t get back into the market until later, you gave up some money.
But studying the latest update to the model reminded of something I had long forgotten. It’s not about the numbers, it’s about the trends, and the Model T is effective at predicting the trends. In short: The model works, and problems were due to operator error. Stupid, stupid, idiot operator!
Responding to model trends results in not selling at the highest point and not buying at the lowest point, but there is the potential to achieve some significant gains. If the model works, you should be able to get out of the market before a significant drop and get back in before a big upswing. Let’s see what investing according to the Model T would have produced over the last two major cycles.
Test #1 (One Cycle)
Say you invested $10,000 in a fund perfectly indexed to the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2006. The Model T would have said to sell in October 2007. Your money would have been worth around $11,970. Using the trend analysis, the Model T would have indicated to get back into the market in April 2010 (it actually says March, but you wouldn’t have the data until April). Your investment today would be worth $13,500. This is a 35% return on your investment. Not great under normal conditions, but not many 401-K accounts are up 35% since 2006. If you found a safe investment to park your money in 2009 and 2010, your return would be over 40% for the time period.
Test #2 (Two Cycles)
Let’s run this through two cycles. Say you invested $10,000 in January 1998. The model says to sell in October 2000. Your money is worth around $14,370. The model tells you to invest back in September 2002. You then cash out $27,000 in October 2007. You buy back in April 2010 and have around $30,400 today. Again, you get even more if you invest in a money market fund during the trough.
What the Model T Says Today
The Model T continues to indicate steady stock growth in 2011, leading to a bodacious 2012. Please remember however that the Model T is only useful for long-term cycles. It does not predict mid-term corrections. We will be fortunate if there is not some type of drawback this year. If there is a correction, the Model T would suggest getting some more money in the market before the 2012 upswing.
Underwear Check
A recent article reported that men’s underwear sales are having a strong year. It said that an improving economy and pent up demand were the reasons. It also stated that men were being more modest in their purchases, buying more basic brands instead of the higher priced products. This was correctly predicted in my March 18, 2010 post: “The Economics of Underwear”.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Monday, April 11, 2011
Don’t Touch Me There!
The mayor of Omaha, Nebraska recently proposed a 10-cent federal tax per roll of toilet paper to pay for expensive city sewer projects. It may seem like an insignificant amount, but when you do the math it is not a small tax. At 10-cents a roll, the tax rate would be 10-40% depending on the brand. I really, really, wish I was making this up, but I’m not.
I wrote about the economics of toilet paper last June (Potty Economics) and thought this would be my last pass on the subject, but I was wrong. What I will assure you is that I will not reuse any of the 26 tasteless puns that appeared in that post. Because some things, like today’s subject, should never be reused.
There is some logic to this idea. It would be a type of “usage tax”. People using toilet paper use the sewer system. People who use more toilet paper theoretically stress the system more. Therefore the more paper you use, the more tax you pay. There are still fairness issues here. Body sizes, hygiene practices and frequency issues vary greatly from person to person. In addition a federal tax would result in customers in small cities and rural areas help pay for big city sewer projects, which appears to be the real motivation for the proposal. Why should someone on a Wyoming ranch be taxed on their toilet paper to pay for Chicago’s sewer repair? (Maybe a cowboy poet could write a prose about it!)
But way beyond that, there is just something very uncomfortable and disgusting about the government touching a most sensitive area. It’s bad enough when the government’s hand is in your pocket, but you really don’t want it sticking it up there. And you know that once the government turns on a revenue stream, it finds it almost impossible to turn it off. Once they find that a toilet paper tax is “found money”, they would enthusiastically go in there with both hands up to the wrist. Talk about your government intrusion!
Because Americans hate taxes (this is one of the things that make us Americans) some people would try to avoid paying the toilet paper tax. I previously wrote that toilet paper is a product with few substitutes. However once you introduce a financial incentive (the tax avoidance) and a non-financial incentive (screw the government), then the development of substitute products becomes more viable.
These products would undoubtedly be advertised on late-night television programs:
“Take a nasty poo? Take care of it with the Personal Sham-Wow. Just Sham-Wow it and forgetaboutit!”
Or --- “Try the new Super Spritzer from Ronco. Just attach it to your sink and let the Super Spritzer give you that spring-fresh feeling.”
A toilet paper tax would also create a black-market for the product – or more appropriately a “brown-market”. Some guy named Cheech would be selling tax-free toilet paper smuggled in from Mexico out of the back of his ’92 van.
“Hey dude, I got some really good two-ply, man. Really soft, good for your buns, man. No sh** man and no sh** leftover either. Got a shipment of quilted coming in on Tuesday if you can wait, man.”
Another reaction to the toilet paper tax is that people might choose to use less. For credibility the mayor pointed out that the toilet paper tax was first proposed (and failed) in Oregon in 2009. I’m guessing that the purpose of that tax was to reduce usage since that was the year of the Greenpeace campaign that claimed the use of plush toilet paper was destroying the environment. If you truly believe the most pressing world problem is toilet paper overuse, then there is no hope for you. You may as well go live on a hippie commune and smoke dope until your brain fizzles out, which shouldn’t take very long.
All I know is that if I reduce my toilet paper usage, it is going to be very damaging to the environment between my cheeks. It is not going to be good for the environment of people sitting by me in long business meetings either.
The toilet paper tax is one of the worst ideas in a long time. It is indicative of a government with an unquenchable thirst for tax money. So thirsty that it ignores basic American history. Because you see, in a meeting 244 years ago somebody said, “I have a most advantageous idea, let us tax their tea.”
It seemed like such a good idea at the time.
(original article on toliet paper tax)
I wrote about the economics of toilet paper last June (Potty Economics) and thought this would be my last pass on the subject, but I was wrong. What I will assure you is that I will not reuse any of the 26 tasteless puns that appeared in that post. Because some things, like today’s subject, should never be reused.
There is some logic to this idea. It would be a type of “usage tax”. People using toilet paper use the sewer system. People who use more toilet paper theoretically stress the system more. Therefore the more paper you use, the more tax you pay. There are still fairness issues here. Body sizes, hygiene practices and frequency issues vary greatly from person to person. In addition a federal tax would result in customers in small cities and rural areas help pay for big city sewer projects, which appears to be the real motivation for the proposal. Why should someone on a Wyoming ranch be taxed on their toilet paper to pay for Chicago’s sewer repair? (Maybe a cowboy poet could write a prose about it!)
But way beyond that, there is just something very uncomfortable and disgusting about the government touching a most sensitive area. It’s bad enough when the government’s hand is in your pocket, but you really don’t want it sticking it up there. And you know that once the government turns on a revenue stream, it finds it almost impossible to turn it off. Once they find that a toilet paper tax is “found money”, they would enthusiastically go in there with both hands up to the wrist. Talk about your government intrusion!
Because Americans hate taxes (this is one of the things that make us Americans) some people would try to avoid paying the toilet paper tax. I previously wrote that toilet paper is a product with few substitutes. However once you introduce a financial incentive (the tax avoidance) and a non-financial incentive (screw the government), then the development of substitute products becomes more viable.
These products would undoubtedly be advertised on late-night television programs:
“Take a nasty poo? Take care of it with the Personal Sham-Wow. Just Sham-Wow it and forgetaboutit!”
Or --- “Try the new Super Spritzer from Ronco. Just attach it to your sink and let the Super Spritzer give you that spring-fresh feeling.”
A toilet paper tax would also create a black-market for the product – or more appropriately a “brown-market”. Some guy named Cheech would be selling tax-free toilet paper smuggled in from Mexico out of the back of his ’92 van.
“Hey dude, I got some really good two-ply, man. Really soft, good for your buns, man. No sh** man and no sh** leftover either. Got a shipment of quilted coming in on Tuesday if you can wait, man.”
Another reaction to the toilet paper tax is that people might choose to use less. For credibility the mayor pointed out that the toilet paper tax was first proposed (and failed) in Oregon in 2009. I’m guessing that the purpose of that tax was to reduce usage since that was the year of the Greenpeace campaign that claimed the use of plush toilet paper was destroying the environment. If you truly believe the most pressing world problem is toilet paper overuse, then there is no hope for you. You may as well go live on a hippie commune and smoke dope until your brain fizzles out, which shouldn’t take very long.
All I know is that if I reduce my toilet paper usage, it is going to be very damaging to the environment between my cheeks. It is not going to be good for the environment of people sitting by me in long business meetings either.
The toilet paper tax is one of the worst ideas in a long time. It is indicative of a government with an unquenchable thirst for tax money. So thirsty that it ignores basic American history. Because you see, in a meeting 244 years ago somebody said, “I have a most advantageous idea, let us tax their tea.”
It seemed like such a good idea at the time.
(original article on toliet paper tax)
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
This Elephant Wants Cheap Oil!
To determine where the economy is going it is important not to ignore the elephant in the room. (Note: “Ignoring the elephant in the room” is a common business expression that should never be used if there is a rotund woman in your meeting). In our case, the elephant in the room is caused by uncertainty in Japan and Libya. Here is my take on both:
Japan: The Japan nuclear crisis was caused by the tsunami. Sure the 8.9 earthquake caused some damage to three reactors that were built to “only” withstand an 8.0 quake. But the problems would have been contained by the safety systems, if those systems would not have been destroyed by the tsunami. So until there are tsunamis on the Great Lakes, our U.S. nuclear plants are in great shape. We need abundant nuclear power to compete globally in this century.
Libya: Most Americans couldn’t find Libya on a map. Most Americans can’t spell Gha, Kad, okay I can’t either, but you get the idea. The only humanitarian mission we are interested in is the one that provides cheap gas for the humans in the U.S. I’m not saying this is right, I’m not saying this is moral, but you know that it is true. So why pretend it is about anything but the oil? Therefore why not just enter Libya and just take over the oil fields until the conflict ends? Don’t get involved with the war at all, just babysit their oil while they duke it out. We can turn the oil fields back to the winning side when the civil war is over. This is cheaper and less dangerous that what we are doing now (and much easier to explain!).
But don’t worry about the other problems in the Middle East because we have strong, decisive, leadership in the White House. Okay, in less than two years we will have the opportunity to elect strong, decisive… Okay, so maybe Donald Trump is starting to look better every day (except for the lousy hair). You get the idea that if Trump called Libya and shouted into the phone, “YOU’RE FIRED”, that somebody would be catching the next camel out of town.
Now let’s take a look at the major economic indicators:
GDP: Economists are scaling back forecasts due to high gas prices. My expert panel is at 3.2% for Q1 and 3.6% for Q2. January and February were hurt by bad weather conditions in the U.S. March was hurt by bad weather in Japan and the political tsunami in the Middle East. The economy is trying to gain momentum, but grease (and sometimes Greece) keeps getting thrown on the track. It’s going to be tough to hit 3.6% unless the elephant goes away soon.
Housing: The bad numbers keep pouring in. Housing starts and housing prices are in terrible shape. However if the housing market is hitting bottom, you would expect “bottom-feeder” numbers. Those numbers are worse than I expected, even though I still expect a recovery to start in the second half of the year. But some experts are very concerned with the “shadow inventory” – foreclosed homes not on the market yet and houses to be foreclosed in the near future. If the shadow inventory is significant, things could get much worse before they get better.
The housing recovery would have already begun if the government would not have artificially propped up the market last year. The government is like your mother-in-law, it means well but it should have stayed out of the way (and kept its trap shut).
Unemployment: Economists keep trying to use the traditional models to predict job growth. This was not a typical recession and this is far from a typical recovery. Job growth will be stronger than predicted because some companies panicked and cut too many employees during the recession. Now they are hiring more employees back than they would in a normal recovery. However, due to some structural changes in the employment market I believe we will hit a “wall” and it will be difficult to get below 7% unemployment. It is still taking people too long to find new jobs, but it is a much better job market than the pit of mid-2009.
Freight: Freight is still strong. It is fluctuating because businesses are having problems matching inventory with sales as the recovery progresses, but the overall trend is positive.
Retail Sales: People are starting to buy things again, especially wealthy people. Luxury good sales are spiking due to pent-up demand. Let’s hope that this is a preview of things to come in the other retail product segments.
Manufacturing: Industrial production and employment are stronger than anyone expected at this point. Exports have slowed down out a bit however.
The Model T: Indicates the recovery will continue throughout 2011 leading to a very strong 2012. Let’s just hope that the elephant doesn’t take a big dump in the middle of the parade route.
Japan: The Japan nuclear crisis was caused by the tsunami. Sure the 8.9 earthquake caused some damage to three reactors that were built to “only” withstand an 8.0 quake. But the problems would have been contained by the safety systems, if those systems would not have been destroyed by the tsunami. So until there are tsunamis on the Great Lakes, our U.S. nuclear plants are in great shape. We need abundant nuclear power to compete globally in this century.
Libya: Most Americans couldn’t find Libya on a map. Most Americans can’t spell Gha, Kad, okay I can’t either, but you get the idea. The only humanitarian mission we are interested in is the one that provides cheap gas for the humans in the U.S. I’m not saying this is right, I’m not saying this is moral, but you know that it is true. So why pretend it is about anything but the oil? Therefore why not just enter Libya and just take over the oil fields until the conflict ends? Don’t get involved with the war at all, just babysit their oil while they duke it out. We can turn the oil fields back to the winning side when the civil war is over. This is cheaper and less dangerous that what we are doing now (and much easier to explain!).
But don’t worry about the other problems in the Middle East because we have strong, decisive, leadership in the White House. Okay, in less than two years we will have the opportunity to elect strong, decisive… Okay, so maybe Donald Trump is starting to look better every day (except for the lousy hair). You get the idea that if Trump called Libya and shouted into the phone, “YOU’RE FIRED”, that somebody would be catching the next camel out of town.
Now let’s take a look at the major economic indicators:
GDP: Economists are scaling back forecasts due to high gas prices. My expert panel is at 3.2% for Q1 and 3.6% for Q2. January and February were hurt by bad weather conditions in the U.S. March was hurt by bad weather in Japan and the political tsunami in the Middle East. The economy is trying to gain momentum, but grease (and sometimes Greece) keeps getting thrown on the track. It’s going to be tough to hit 3.6% unless the elephant goes away soon.
Housing: The bad numbers keep pouring in. Housing starts and housing prices are in terrible shape. However if the housing market is hitting bottom, you would expect “bottom-feeder” numbers. Those numbers are worse than I expected, even though I still expect a recovery to start in the second half of the year. But some experts are very concerned with the “shadow inventory” – foreclosed homes not on the market yet and houses to be foreclosed in the near future. If the shadow inventory is significant, things could get much worse before they get better.
The housing recovery would have already begun if the government would not have artificially propped up the market last year. The government is like your mother-in-law, it means well but it should have stayed out of the way (and kept its trap shut).
Unemployment: Economists keep trying to use the traditional models to predict job growth. This was not a typical recession and this is far from a typical recovery. Job growth will be stronger than predicted because some companies panicked and cut too many employees during the recession. Now they are hiring more employees back than they would in a normal recovery. However, due to some structural changes in the employment market I believe we will hit a “wall” and it will be difficult to get below 7% unemployment. It is still taking people too long to find new jobs, but it is a much better job market than the pit of mid-2009.
Freight: Freight is still strong. It is fluctuating because businesses are having problems matching inventory with sales as the recovery progresses, but the overall trend is positive.
Retail Sales: People are starting to buy things again, especially wealthy people. Luxury good sales are spiking due to pent-up demand. Let’s hope that this is a preview of things to come in the other retail product segments.
Manufacturing: Industrial production and employment are stronger than anyone expected at this point. Exports have slowed down out a bit however.
The Model T: Indicates the recovery will continue throughout 2011 leading to a very strong 2012. Let’s just hope that the elephant doesn’t take a big dump in the middle of the parade route.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
My Poets Have Never Been Cowboys
Recently Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) defended maintaining the funding of the National Endowment for the Arts. His best argument for continuing the funding was that if the funds were cut, the Cowboy Poetry Festival (held in Nevada, what a surprise) might have to be cancelled.
Unfortunately, I am not making this up. We (taxpayers) are subsidizing cowboy poets and powerful people in government think it would be tragic if we stopped providing this service. Isn’t it interesting that you would get the same reaction from a junkie if you threatened to take away his smack.
I think that if I needed an example of why cutting the funding was needed, I might play the “cowboy poetry” card. If we do go broke, people 100 years from now will say “Look at those idiots, the deficits were so high, but they still spent money on that cowboy poetry.
What is cowboy poetry anyway? When I told my friend Sue that I was going to write on this subject, she said that it wouldn’t be fair to comment on it without actually reading some of it. She is obviously an intelligent woman, so I did read some cowboy poetry using a new technology called the “Internet”.
It is bad. It is “last thing I would read in the doctor’s office” bad. It is “Oprah reading list runner-up” bad. It is “against the Geneva Convention to read this to prisoners“ bad. It is “third-grade poetry contest” bad. I had to clean my computer monitor after the download to get the stench out.
But if it so bad, why do cowboys continue to write it and why is there a tax-payer funded festival every year to promote it? My theory is that cowboys do this stupid thing for the same reason men have done stupid things throughout the ages: Chicks dig it.
And there is another dynamic taking place here. Woman love cowboys. They find this rugged masculinity very sexy and appealing. Why do you think so many men’s colognes have “western” names? Even business executives want to smell like cowboys, because woman love cowboys. If you can’t be a cowboy, the next best thing is to splash on some Stetson and smell like one.
Even gay men are attracted to cowboys. My evidence is the cowboy character in The Village People and the movie Brokeback Mountain. So if you like men, you like cowboys.
And when cowboys write poetry, they reveal their sensitive side. And guys know that women crave that mix of strength and sensitivity. Of course most guys who realize this, still have problems making it work.
Woman: “What the hell are you doing?”
Man: “I’m trying to be strong”
Woman: “Well stop it and try to be more sensitive, you jerk!”
The next day …
Woman: “What the hell are you doing?”
Man: “I’m trying to be sensitive”
Woman: “Well quit being a wimp and show some strength!”
So I’m not surprised that cowboys write poetry. I’m also not surprised that a cowboy poetry festival is popular as hundreds of cowgirl wannabees descend upon northern Nevada (including maybe some Vegas showgirls). For a weekend the cowboys have more groupies than rock stars. Sure they are saddle sore for the next week, but they don’t mind. It wouldn’t even surprise me if a cowboy poet first coined the term for that reverse riding style.
So yes, I guess cowboy poetry has a purpose. And yes, I suppose people have a great time at the festival. But I still don’t understand why one dime of taxpayer money should go to fund this. If the cowboys are having as much fun as I think they are, they will most assuredly pay all the expenses.
So in honor of cowboy poetry, I will end this blog with a cowboy poem of my own:
Tham Chaps
Tham chaps are rubbin’ me the wrong way
Tham chaps are ruinin’ my day
Tham chaps in D.C.
Are really irritating me
Tham chaps are chaffing my thighs
And tellin’ us lies
They take corn for my cattle
To make gas for Seattle
Tham chaps are pinching my buns
And they’re after my guns
They don’t want to hear
Then they go taxin’ my beer
Tham chaps are inflaming my loins
As they grab all tham coins
They’re taxin’ my smokes
And screwing us folks
Tham chaps are grinding my nubs
And sayin’ thing that are dumb
Thar dense as a bird
And make more manure than my herd
Tham chaps are rubbin’ me the wrong way
Tham chaps are ruinin’ my day
Tham chaps in D.C.
Are really irritating me
Yee Haw!
Unfortunately, I am not making this up. We (taxpayers) are subsidizing cowboy poets and powerful people in government think it would be tragic if we stopped providing this service. Isn’t it interesting that you would get the same reaction from a junkie if you threatened to take away his smack.
I think that if I needed an example of why cutting the funding was needed, I might play the “cowboy poetry” card. If we do go broke, people 100 years from now will say “Look at those idiots, the deficits were so high, but they still spent money on that cowboy poetry.
What is cowboy poetry anyway? When I told my friend Sue that I was going to write on this subject, she said that it wouldn’t be fair to comment on it without actually reading some of it. She is obviously an intelligent woman, so I did read some cowboy poetry using a new technology called the “Internet”.
It is bad. It is “last thing I would read in the doctor’s office” bad. It is “Oprah reading list runner-up” bad. It is “against the Geneva Convention to read this to prisoners“ bad. It is “third-grade poetry contest” bad. I had to clean my computer monitor after the download to get the stench out.
But if it so bad, why do cowboys continue to write it and why is there a tax-payer funded festival every year to promote it? My theory is that cowboys do this stupid thing for the same reason men have done stupid things throughout the ages: Chicks dig it.
And there is another dynamic taking place here. Woman love cowboys. They find this rugged masculinity very sexy and appealing. Why do you think so many men’s colognes have “western” names? Even business executives want to smell like cowboys, because woman love cowboys. If you can’t be a cowboy, the next best thing is to splash on some Stetson and smell like one.
Even gay men are attracted to cowboys. My evidence is the cowboy character in The Village People and the movie Brokeback Mountain. So if you like men, you like cowboys.
And when cowboys write poetry, they reveal their sensitive side. And guys know that women crave that mix of strength and sensitivity. Of course most guys who realize this, still have problems making it work.
Woman: “What the hell are you doing?”
Man: “I’m trying to be strong”
Woman: “Well stop it and try to be more sensitive, you jerk!”
The next day …
Woman: “What the hell are you doing?”
Man: “I’m trying to be sensitive”
Woman: “Well quit being a wimp and show some strength!”
So I’m not surprised that cowboys write poetry. I’m also not surprised that a cowboy poetry festival is popular as hundreds of cowgirl wannabees descend upon northern Nevada (including maybe some Vegas showgirls). For a weekend the cowboys have more groupies than rock stars. Sure they are saddle sore for the next week, but they don’t mind. It wouldn’t even surprise me if a cowboy poet first coined the term for that reverse riding style.
So yes, I guess cowboy poetry has a purpose. And yes, I suppose people have a great time at the festival. But I still don’t understand why one dime of taxpayer money should go to fund this. If the cowboys are having as much fun as I think they are, they will most assuredly pay all the expenses.
So in honor of cowboy poetry, I will end this blog with a cowboy poem of my own:
Tham Chaps
Tham chaps are rubbin’ me the wrong way
Tham chaps are ruinin’ my day
Tham chaps in D.C.
Are really irritating me
Tham chaps are chaffing my thighs
And tellin’ us lies
They take corn for my cattle
To make gas for Seattle
Tham chaps are pinching my buns
And they’re after my guns
They don’t want to hear
Then they go taxin’ my beer
Tham chaps are inflaming my loins
As they grab all tham coins
They’re taxin’ my smokes
And screwing us folks
Tham chaps are grinding my nubs
And sayin’ thing that are dumb
Thar dense as a bird
And make more manure than my herd
Tham chaps are rubbin’ me the wrong way
Tham chaps are ruinin’ my day
Tham chaps in D.C.
Are really irritating me
Yee Haw!
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Ollie, Ollie, In, But Never Free
It was a quiet Saturday afternoon when I heard a knock at the door. I opened the door and there stood a very strange looking fellow. He was a large, rotund, man. His face swollen and red, he sort of looked the Michelin man only more bloated.
“Gimme me some money for gas”, he demanded.
“What?” I asked.
“I need money for gas,” he explained. “I thought I had enough gas money to make it home, but when I stopped to buy gas it was so expensive I couldn’t buy enough. So my car stalled out in front of your house.”
He got redder and was wheezing as he spoke.
“Are you alright?” I asked. “Do you have a problem with high blood pressure?”
“My blood pressure is just fine”, he explained. “325 over 280, very normal.”
“Wait here while I call you an ambulance”, I said.
But as I turned my back, he belly bumped me back into my house. When I turned around, I saw they he had followed me inside and was now standing in my front room.
“Hey look at that sandwich!” he exclaimed. And then he picked it up and took a huge bite.
“Who the heck are you”? I demanded.
“The name is Ollie, Ollie Inflation”, he said.
“Well Inflation, you just ate my lunch”, I barked.
“And it was delicious”, Ollie exclaimed. “I hope dinner is just as tasty.”
“Dinner! Oh no, you are not staying for dinner. You are leaving right now”, I insisted.
“Afraid not”, said Ollie. “Most people think I won’t show up, but once I arrive I tend to stay awhile and I’m very difficult to get rid of.”
“But you are so rude and demanding”, I pleaded.
“Yes, you are correct sir”, he explained. “Most people find me very difficult to live with.”
Then Ollie went over to the wine cabinet and started to chug-a-lug a very expensive bottle of cabernet. He cranked the air-conditioner up and plopped down in front of the television and ordered a pay-per-view movie.
“What do you think you are doing?” I yelled “Dude, money doesn’t grow on trees.”
“Oh yes it does”, Ollie said with a smile. “At least the paper version is made from trees. I was just down at the mint printing money like mad with my buddies Tim and Ben. That reminds me do you have a towel? We were working so fast I got green ink all over my hands.”
“So you printed so much money that you made a mess. And now you are here in my house!” I exclaimed.
“And I will have an impact in every room of this house, including the garage”, he boasted. Your food will cost more, your entertainment will cost more, and your clothes will cost more.
“At least you won’t have an impact in the bedroom”, I protested.
“Don’t be so sure, Ollie said. Guys who worry too much about me might be subject to certain deflationary conditions and once you complain to your wife that she’s spending too much money, you might not even get that far. I am going to cost you dearly my man.”
“But I can’t afford you”, I interrupted. “I am barely making ends meet now.”
“Not my problem”, said Ollie. “Perhaps you should find a higher paying job.”
“Are you crazy?” I exclaimed. “Unemployment is still very high and wages aren’t going up.”
“Then it looks like you are going to have to get by with less”, he said. “Are we having pie with dinner? I’m getting very, very hungry!”
“You are pushy and persistent and you are really putting the squeeze on my finances. Why are you bothering me?” I asked.
“Oh, it’s not just you, said Ollie. “My cousins and I are visiting every house on the block. Well, every house except for G. Gordon Liddy’s. He put up that nasty golden hedge. Inflations absolutely hate those hedges.”
Inflation then ran around the room taking a bite out of or ripping a piece from everything in its path.
I started to clean up Ollie’s mess when he walked past me with a stack of dollar bills.
“Hey, where are going with my money?” I demanded.
“I have to take a dump and I couldn’t find the toilet paper”, he explained. “These should work just fine.”
A few minutes later, Ollie yelled out from the bathroom, “Hey, do you have any tens and twenties? It’s going to be a big one.”
It’s going to be a big one indeed.
“Gimme me some money for gas”, he demanded.
“What?” I asked.
“I need money for gas,” he explained. “I thought I had enough gas money to make it home, but when I stopped to buy gas it was so expensive I couldn’t buy enough. So my car stalled out in front of your house.”
He got redder and was wheezing as he spoke.
“Are you alright?” I asked. “Do you have a problem with high blood pressure?”
“My blood pressure is just fine”, he explained. “325 over 280, very normal.”
“Wait here while I call you an ambulance”, I said.
But as I turned my back, he belly bumped me back into my house. When I turned around, I saw they he had followed me inside and was now standing in my front room.
“Hey look at that sandwich!” he exclaimed. And then he picked it up and took a huge bite.
“Who the heck are you”? I demanded.
“The name is Ollie, Ollie Inflation”, he said.
“Well Inflation, you just ate my lunch”, I barked.
“And it was delicious”, Ollie exclaimed. “I hope dinner is just as tasty.”
“Dinner! Oh no, you are not staying for dinner. You are leaving right now”, I insisted.
“Afraid not”, said Ollie. “Most people think I won’t show up, but once I arrive I tend to stay awhile and I’m very difficult to get rid of.”
“But you are so rude and demanding”, I pleaded.
“Yes, you are correct sir”, he explained. “Most people find me very difficult to live with.”
Then Ollie went over to the wine cabinet and started to chug-a-lug a very expensive bottle of cabernet. He cranked the air-conditioner up and plopped down in front of the television and ordered a pay-per-view movie.
“What do you think you are doing?” I yelled “Dude, money doesn’t grow on trees.”
“Oh yes it does”, Ollie said with a smile. “At least the paper version is made from trees. I was just down at the mint printing money like mad with my buddies Tim and Ben. That reminds me do you have a towel? We were working so fast I got green ink all over my hands.”
“So you printed so much money that you made a mess. And now you are here in my house!” I exclaimed.
“And I will have an impact in every room of this house, including the garage”, he boasted. Your food will cost more, your entertainment will cost more, and your clothes will cost more.
“At least you won’t have an impact in the bedroom”, I protested.
“Don’t be so sure, Ollie said. Guys who worry too much about me might be subject to certain deflationary conditions and once you complain to your wife that she’s spending too much money, you might not even get that far. I am going to cost you dearly my man.”
“But I can’t afford you”, I interrupted. “I am barely making ends meet now.”
“Not my problem”, said Ollie. “Perhaps you should find a higher paying job.”
“Are you crazy?” I exclaimed. “Unemployment is still very high and wages aren’t going up.”
“Then it looks like you are going to have to get by with less”, he said. “Are we having pie with dinner? I’m getting very, very hungry!”
“You are pushy and persistent and you are really putting the squeeze on my finances. Why are you bothering me?” I asked.
“Oh, it’s not just you, said Ollie. “My cousins and I are visiting every house on the block. Well, every house except for G. Gordon Liddy’s. He put up that nasty golden hedge. Inflations absolutely hate those hedges.”
Inflation then ran around the room taking a bite out of or ripping a piece from everything in its path.
I started to clean up Ollie’s mess when he walked past me with a stack of dollar bills.
“Hey, where are going with my money?” I demanded.
“I have to take a dump and I couldn’t find the toilet paper”, he explained. “These should work just fine.”
A few minutes later, Ollie yelled out from the bathroom, “Hey, do you have any tens and twenties? It’s going to be a big one.”
It’s going to be a big one indeed.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Swimsuit Model Economics
Warning: The following post contains statements of a strong heterosexual nature and other statements that could be considered “sexist”. Reader discretion is advised.
Well the Ukraine girls really knock me out
They leave the west behind
And Moscow girls make me sing and shout
They Georgia's always on my my my my my my my my my mind
I stumbled upon another unusual economic indicator this week. It is the “Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue Indicator”. It says that when an American appears on the cover of the swimsuit issue, stocks do well that year. But when a foreigner appears, the stock market drops.
This year’s cover model is Russia’s Irina Shayk (she is just a few letters short of being an Austin Powers character). According to the article I read, this is bad news for the stock market. Although it is uncertain how bad it will be (the author ran a historical analysis based on country origin), since this is the first time a Russian has appeared on this cover.
Of course this is silliness and has about as much credibility as Groundhog Day predictions. But Irina is more interesting to watch than Punxsutawney Phil, so of course it deserves much closer study all in the name of economics. So what does the selection of Irina Shayk say about the economy and the stock market this year? Who better to analyze this than I?
Stability
When I heard the woman was from Russia, I expected to see a pale, lithe, blond. But Irina appears healthy, solid, and stable. Not quite a “brick house”, but she’s no pushover. For someone living in a tough Russian economy, she is not malnourished (of course she doesn’t lack for dinner invitations, does she?) But she has recovered nicely from the recession. She is getting three square meals a day which are being converted into some impressive curves. After the turmoil of the past years, we seek substance and stability.
Genuine
Irina is not even a light skinned blond. She is a dark complected brunette. She is not overly sexy, just very beautiful. A natural beautiful with no fillers, supplements or enhancements needed. After all the phoniness we’ve just experienced, we desire something real.
Long-Term Perspective
Irina is not a woman for a one-night stand. She is a woman for the long haul. Again, beauty trumps sex appeal. After all the get rich quick schemes of the aught (00’s), we want long-term investments. You may have flipped houses, but you wouldn’t flip… (Okay I’m not going there)
Functionality
Irina looks like a baby-maker, or in today’s lingo a baby-mama. She is a strong, well-built woman, with nice child-bearing hips. She looks capable of popping out a baby on Tuesday and being back working in the fields on Thursday. Because of course that is what Russian women have had to do throughout history. And obviously the babies will be well fed. She could even manage triplets. Sure there would be a waiting line, but nobody would go to nap time hungry. We now seek things that are productive and make sense.
Strength
Russian women are very physically strong. They are stronger than they look. It’s in the DNA. Anyone who’s watched Anna Kournikova crush a tennis ball can attest to that. Correction: anyone who’s actually watched her tennis racket strike the ball can attest to that. We now seek strength in our institutions (and our cover girls).
Intelligence
I’m guessing here but, I believe Irina is probably very intelligent. I am basing this on the fact that I personally know four Russian (maybe Eastern European) women and they all have three things in common. They are very intelligent, very charming and very beautiful. Think about it. All those Russian spies in the movies weren’t just beautiful but they were crafty and smart. Hey, wait a minute. Maybe I should not have shared all those proprietary company documents with Svetlana who just happened to work for a competitor. Rats, taken advantage of again! We seek intelligence after listening to the fools.
An Economic Indicator
So looking at all these factors, I think the choice of Irina does have indications for what we want in our economic future. And it’s surprising that a Russian woman has not appeared on the cover of the swimsuit edition before. Of course back when it was the U.S.S.R., commie girls were such a turn-off, unless you were the Beatles.
And if Irina happens to read this and wants to meet to discuss economics, I will gladly listen to her opinions. The Model T meets the model I.
Oh, show me round your snow peaked
mountain way down south
Take me to you daddy's farm
Let me hear you balalaika's ringing out
Come and keep your comrade warm
I'm back in the USSR
Hey, You don't know how lucky you are, boy
Back in the USSR
Well the Ukraine girls really knock me out
They leave the west behind
And Moscow girls make me sing and shout
They Georgia's always on my my my my my my my my my mind
I stumbled upon another unusual economic indicator this week. It is the “Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue Indicator”. It says that when an American appears on the cover of the swimsuit issue, stocks do well that year. But when a foreigner appears, the stock market drops.
This year’s cover model is Russia’s Irina Shayk (she is just a few letters short of being an Austin Powers character). According to the article I read, this is bad news for the stock market. Although it is uncertain how bad it will be (the author ran a historical analysis based on country origin), since this is the first time a Russian has appeared on this cover.
Of course this is silliness and has about as much credibility as Groundhog Day predictions. But Irina is more interesting to watch than Punxsutawney Phil, so of course it deserves much closer study all in the name of economics. So what does the selection of Irina Shayk say about the economy and the stock market this year? Who better to analyze this than I?
Stability
When I heard the woman was from Russia, I expected to see a pale, lithe, blond. But Irina appears healthy, solid, and stable. Not quite a “brick house”, but she’s no pushover. For someone living in a tough Russian economy, she is not malnourished (of course she doesn’t lack for dinner invitations, does she?) But she has recovered nicely from the recession. She is getting three square meals a day which are being converted into some impressive curves. After the turmoil of the past years, we seek substance and stability.
Genuine
Irina is not even a light skinned blond. She is a dark complected brunette. She is not overly sexy, just very beautiful. A natural beautiful with no fillers, supplements or enhancements needed. After all the phoniness we’ve just experienced, we desire something real.
Long-Term Perspective
Irina is not a woman for a one-night stand. She is a woman for the long haul. Again, beauty trumps sex appeal. After all the get rich quick schemes of the aught (00’s), we want long-term investments. You may have flipped houses, but you wouldn’t flip… (Okay I’m not going there)
Functionality
Irina looks like a baby-maker, or in today’s lingo a baby-mama. She is a strong, well-built woman, with nice child-bearing hips. She looks capable of popping out a baby on Tuesday and being back working in the fields on Thursday. Because of course that is what Russian women have had to do throughout history. And obviously the babies will be well fed. She could even manage triplets. Sure there would be a waiting line, but nobody would go to nap time hungry. We now seek things that are productive and make sense.
Strength
Russian women are very physically strong. They are stronger than they look. It’s in the DNA. Anyone who’s watched Anna Kournikova crush a tennis ball can attest to that. Correction: anyone who’s actually watched her tennis racket strike the ball can attest to that. We now seek strength in our institutions (and our cover girls).
Intelligence
I’m guessing here but, I believe Irina is probably very intelligent. I am basing this on the fact that I personally know four Russian (maybe Eastern European) women and they all have three things in common. They are very intelligent, very charming and very beautiful. Think about it. All those Russian spies in the movies weren’t just beautiful but they were crafty and smart. Hey, wait a minute. Maybe I should not have shared all those proprietary company documents with Svetlana who just happened to work for a competitor. Rats, taken advantage of again! We seek intelligence after listening to the fools.
An Economic Indicator
So looking at all these factors, I think the choice of Irina does have indications for what we want in our economic future. And it’s surprising that a Russian woman has not appeared on the cover of the swimsuit edition before. Of course back when it was the U.S.S.R., commie girls were such a turn-off, unless you were the Beatles.
And if Irina happens to read this and wants to meet to discuss economics, I will gladly listen to her opinions. The Model T meets the model I.
Oh, show me round your snow peaked
mountain way down south
Take me to you daddy's farm
Let me hear you balalaika's ringing out
Come and keep your comrade warm
I'm back in the USSR
Hey, You don't know how lucky you are, boy
Back in the USSR
Monday, February 7, 2011
Who's Your Daddy
- Just days after I blogged that the employment situation was much better than the experts believe, the January report showed the unemployment rate dropping to 9.0%. While I still believe the raw numbers can’t be trusted because there is too much “noise” in the data, the drop absolutely confirms my observations. In 60 days the unemployment rate has fallen 0.8 percentage points. This is the largest two month drop in over 50 years! Who’s your economic blog daddy now?
Yes I realize that the current employment situation remains tough. The number of people with jobs is still down 5.6% (7.7 million jobs) from pre-recession levels (Calculated Risk). And in a recent survey only 11% of respondents believe the job situation is improving significantly.
- When the Cash for Clunkers program was being debated, one side said it would result in increased overall sales and the other side said it would just pull ahead sales that would have happened anyways. We now can see by looking at the monthly chart of U.S. Light Vehicle sales that C-F-C was a colossal waste of money. It basically paid people to buy cars one to three months ahead of time. Also it disrupted auto production schedules (and supplier schedules) and car dealership operations. And don’t forget the needless destruction of all those functional used vehicles. Call it Cash for Cluster****s (You can fill in the *s).
- Two recent reader surveys (open participation) on MSN Money show that business/consumer confidence remains shaky. Only 17% of respondents think that better economic conditions are right around the corner and 24% even expect another recession. Only around 20% of respondents to the second survey (because of the nature of these surveys, many of the respondents are the same people) said they have increased spending since the recession. And about an equal number said they are still spending less. While this news is disappointing it does support my contention that there is tremendous pent-up demand in the economy. And once people believe that the economy is getting better, they will spend more money and this upturn will “get legs”. That is why I forecast a strong 2012.
- The GDP for Q4, 2010 is now estimated to be 3.2%, but my expert economic panel forecast was only 2.1%. Why? Professional economists tend to be too optimistic going into an economic downturn and too pessimistic coming out. It’s just plain human nature and it is compounded by the fact that some economic indicators aren’t functioning well right now (see unemployment observation above). The panel forecasts 2.5% for the current quarter. Let’s add the 1.1% difference in forecast from Q4, and call it 3.6% for Q1. The panel is forecasting 3.3% growth for Q2 and 3.2% for Q3.
- Something happened to consumer spending in the June-July period of last year. Sales decreased in many industries and that’s when some economists were worried about a double dip (the Model T did not decline during this time). I hope some professional economists analyze this to find out the cause. But I read this week that sales of one product began a strong sales gain in late July and has remained strong since. Of course I am referring to our favorite economic indicator: Men’s underwear sales. For all you people who cowboy-upped last July and August, I salute you for leading this economic recovery.
- President Obama has introduced “Win-The-Future” as the slogan that is going to solve our economic problems. If you are old enough, you remember Gerald Ford’s “Whip Inflation Now” which of course did nothing to stop inflation. If fact, inflation went on to whip our backsides.
But of course “Win the Future” is best represented by the letters WTF. This is ironic because Obama has finally succeeded in uniting people. His supporters are now chanting WTF and his opponents have been shouting WTF for the past two years. WTF indeed.
Yes I realize that the current employment situation remains tough. The number of people with jobs is still down 5.6% (7.7 million jobs) from pre-recession levels (Calculated Risk). And in a recent survey only 11% of respondents believe the job situation is improving significantly.
- When the Cash for Clunkers program was being debated, one side said it would result in increased overall sales and the other side said it would just pull ahead sales that would have happened anyways. We now can see by looking at the monthly chart of U.S. Light Vehicle sales that C-F-C was a colossal waste of money. It basically paid people to buy cars one to three months ahead of time. Also it disrupted auto production schedules (and supplier schedules) and car dealership operations. And don’t forget the needless destruction of all those functional used vehicles. Call it Cash for Cluster****s (You can fill in the *s).
- Two recent reader surveys (open participation) on MSN Money show that business/consumer confidence remains shaky. Only 17% of respondents think that better economic conditions are right around the corner and 24% even expect another recession. Only around 20% of respondents to the second survey (because of the nature of these surveys, many of the respondents are the same people) said they have increased spending since the recession. And about an equal number said they are still spending less. While this news is disappointing it does support my contention that there is tremendous pent-up demand in the economy. And once people believe that the economy is getting better, they will spend more money and this upturn will “get legs”. That is why I forecast a strong 2012.
- The GDP for Q4, 2010 is now estimated to be 3.2%, but my expert economic panel forecast was only 2.1%. Why? Professional economists tend to be too optimistic going into an economic downturn and too pessimistic coming out. It’s just plain human nature and it is compounded by the fact that some economic indicators aren’t functioning well right now (see unemployment observation above). The panel forecasts 2.5% for the current quarter. Let’s add the 1.1% difference in forecast from Q4, and call it 3.6% for Q1. The panel is forecasting 3.3% growth for Q2 and 3.2% for Q3.
- Something happened to consumer spending in the June-July period of last year. Sales decreased in many industries and that’s when some economists were worried about a double dip (the Model T did not decline during this time). I hope some professional economists analyze this to find out the cause. But I read this week that sales of one product began a strong sales gain in late July and has remained strong since. Of course I am referring to our favorite economic indicator: Men’s underwear sales. For all you people who cowboy-upped last July and August, I salute you for leading this economic recovery.
- President Obama has introduced “Win-The-Future” as the slogan that is going to solve our economic problems. If you are old enough, you remember Gerald Ford’s “Whip Inflation Now” which of course did nothing to stop inflation. If fact, inflation went on to whip our backsides.
But of course “Win the Future” is best represented by the letters WTF. This is ironic because Obama has finally succeeded in uniting people. His supporters are now chanting WTF and his opponents have been shouting WTF for the past two years. WTF indeed.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
